I am a happy person, one who is generally so positive that it probably annoys the hell out of my friends and family.  I am upbeat and when it comes to my Green Bay Packers, my optimism is unmatched.  When I was a kid, thinking they would win every game and every Super Bowl was just a cute, childish phase.  Now that I am an adult who thinks they will win every game and every Super Bowl, it’s obnoxious.

This last few days have provided some perfect examples of how deeply rooted my positive Packer thoughts are.  After Greg Jennings dropped a perfectly thrown touchdown right into the hands of a defensive player against the Lions last week, I actually made the argument that the mistake may wake them up and get them to play better football.  When discussing this Sunday’s Packer-Patriot game with my buddy BC, I actually said, “Best case scenario, Rodgers plays, they beat the Patriots and win the Super Bowl.  Worst case scenario, Rodgers doesn’t play, they lose to the Patriots, win out, sneak into the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.”  Look, I know that I am ridiculous.  But when you care so much and so deeply about a sports team, thinking rationally becomes impossible.

But the Packers current situation troubles even me.  Full disclosure, as regular readers/listeners know, I am a staunch supportive of Ted Thompson, Mike McCarthy, and Aaron Rodgers.  Coming into this year, I would have said that I was staunchly behind Thompson/Rodgers and a little lukewarm towards McCarthy.  Despite the team’s struggles, I am now completely sold on McCarthy as a head coach and believe in him far more than I did before the season.

That very support is what troubles me.  With Rodgers seemingly out for Sunday against the Patriots and the Bears playing the Joe Webb led Vikings outdoors, it seems all but certain that the Bears will clinch the NFC North on Monday night.  Meaning that the Packers will need to beat the Giants and the Bears at Lambeau to finish the season, and hope everything falls correctly into place to sneak into the playoffs.  If the Packers finish out of the playoffs, the first problem is that Ted Thompson haters gain fuel for their fire, even if it is undeserved.  Forget that the Packers have been ravaged worse than any team in the league by injuries or that the depth created by Thompson has kept them alive despite those injuries, his haters don’t use reason when crafting arguments.  So my first problem, is that I have to listen to those people spout off more garbage over the next year.  Beyond that, we’ll have to listen to the anti-Rodgers crowd continue the “He hasn’t won a playoff game!” drumbeat.  Gag me now.

Beyond all that, the most troubling aspect of it all is that I am staring what potentially is the final three weeks of Packer season in the face.  This week barely counts as Sunday will be full of nothing but dread, as I am looking forward to this Packer game less than I have any game over the last decade.  During the 4-12 season, I went into games with an apathetic attitude and partially hoping to secure a high draft pick.  This game actually matters and I have to watch us get annihilated with our backup quarterback on national TV.  Then, I may only have two games left this year.  Both are at Lambeau, and my biggest saving grace is that even with the likely loss to the Pats on Sunday, those games will still matter.  So I know that I have three weeks left to care about Packer football with all my heart and soul.  But the suffocating, empty feeling that is the end of a Packer season without a Super Bowl title is closing in on me.  And despite being the most optimistic Packer fan around, I don’t know that I can stop it.

NFL Picks

TENNESSEE -1.5 over Houston

Jake and I discussed this game on the podcast, so I apologize for double dipping on these points.  Despite Houston being the more talented team, this game has stink bomb written all over it.  First, the Texans gave the Ravens all they could handle Monday night and this Texans team’s MO is their inconsistency.  But more importantly, their season officially ended with that loss, they are on a short week, and Mario Williams has been placed on IR.  Tennessee on the other hand has dropped six straight, has to be hungry for a win, and have had extra time to prepare.  Titans get off the losing streak in a big way on Sunday.

Jacksonville +5 over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts probably win this game, but they simply are not playing well enough to be more than field goal favorites over a solid team, which the Jags qualify as at this point.  Pure value play here.

Philadelphia +3 over NY GIANTS

I absolutely love this.  The Eagles are the better team in the East and will not blow a game that is essentially for the division title.  Eli Manning has been maddeningly turnover prone this year and I do not expect that to end in a cold, swirling New Meadowlands.  I think that the Eagles will make enough big plays offensively to win this one, so covering +3 seems like a gimmie.

TAMPA BAY -5.5 over Detroit

The Lions have been playing better than previous years, but let’s not forget that they are still 0-6 on the road this year.  Tampa has their playoff lives on the line and played their bad game last week against the Redskins.  The Lions hang around for a half, like usual, but the Bucs roll in the second half.

New Orleans +1 over BALTIMORE

I have been bashing the Ravens all year, saying that they are merely a good team that people wrongfully elevate to elite, so I’m not going to stop now.  They are playing the Super Bowl champs who need this one to keep pace with the Falcons.  The Ravens meanwhile have a playoff spot almost locked up but realistically, aren’t going to catch Pittsburgh.  I expect a close game, but I like the Saints when it counts.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 70-65-2 (.518)

All Time on ADPTP: 127-126-4 (.502)

Last Post: 3-3 (.500)

(Channeling my inner Chris Berman)…Let me be among the first to wish you, a Happy Thanksgiving!  I have ranted many times on the horrendous Chris Berman, but this is one of my biggest pet peeves.  This past weekend he gave us the “Let us be among the first to wish you a Happy Thanksgiving!”  I absolutely, one hundred percent guarantee you that every program he opens on Sunday will include him saying “Let us be among the last to wish you a Happy Thanksgiving!”  He thinks it is extremely clever and does it for every single holiday.  He has even gotten to the point where he does it for things like Columbus Day, which is ridiculous because unless you have a scathing hatred for native americans, nobody walks around wishing people a Happy Columbus Day.

There was really no point to that opening other than making it clear how much I hate Chris Berman.  What I really love is Thanksgiving weekend football.  For the college game, as a Badger fan, this has all the makings of a fantastic Saturday.  Personally, I am traveling to visit some friends meaning that alcohol consumption will be high.  The Buckeyes and the Spartans play at 11 AM, meaning that during the 2:30 PM Badger game we will know if the Rose Bowl is on the line.  This has the potential to be a fantastic Saturday, that will likely end in a few too many alcoholic beverages.  I would say only if the Badgers clinch the Rose Bowl, but really if they don’t too, because then we’ll be upset.  In fact losing the Rose Bowl may ultimately lead to more drinking and likely, destructive gambling.

The NFL side of things has two huge games, again involving my team and their rival.  The Packers will go into Atlanta on Sunday, an indescribably big game in the NFC landscape.  If Atlanta wins, the Packers chance at the #1 seed is gone as Atlanta would have what amounts to a 2.5 game lead with 5 to play due to the tiebreaker.  If the Packers win, they suddenly become the favorite to land home field in the NFC as they would be tied for the best record with tiebreakers over both Philly and Atlanta.  The Bears, tied for first with the Pack at 7-3, will host the Eagles in a big game.  If the Bears can find a way to pull this one out, they would give their many doubters a tough task in arguing against them.  A loss however would drop them to 7-4, with all four losses coming against the NFC.  That is a bad statistic for Bears fans as conference record often is the determining factor in ties down the stretch.

Six picks this week, four in the NFL and only two in college.  To the picks!

NCAA Picks

Boise St -14 over NEVADA

Nevada being in Reno is fitting because Reno’s little brother relationship with Vegas is similar to the Wolfpack’s litter brother relationship with the Broncos.  Nevada can score a ton of points and scare some major conference teams, but don’t have the firepower to keep up with actual elite teams.  Boise hasn’t played a big game since September and finish with Utah St, so they will be ready for this one.  Boise by 20+.

Michigan +17 over OHIO STATE

I was watching the college edition of Jeopardy recently and the bitch from Ohio State that made the semi-finals said her name and “THE Ohio State University” after it.  You are going up against a bunch of pretentious Ivy Leaguers and kids with perfect SAT scores.  Your bullshit article in front of your school isn’t impressing anybody.  Then again, I guess we can’t expect somebody from OSU to understand that.  Oh yeah, and 17 points is too many in this game.

NFL Picks

New Orleans -4 over DALLAS

My only Thanksgiving Day pick is the Saints.  They have been playing very well lately and I’m not falling for two good games out of the Cowboys.  This team has shown their true colors and they will rear their head here.

Jacksonville +7.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS

This line is ridiculous, especially given how beat up the Giants are at wide receiver.  The only reason I’m scared at all is because this line is so fishy that I’m worried Vegas is begging us to bet the Jags.  But the more I think about it, the more I realize that Vegas has just been infatuated with this Giants team since they upset the Pats in the Super Bowl.  Take the points.

Tampa Bay +8 over BALTIMORE

Tampa is wildly undervalued, much like NC State has been in college all year, and I am going to ride it until it stops.  I can actually see the Ravens covering, but know that this value is too good to pass up.  I love the Bucs getting over a touchdown.

San Francisco -1 over ARIZONA

An absolutely awful Monday night game, but at least betting on it can make it somewhat interesting.  I have been against the San Francisco bandwagon all season, but Arizona is beyond awful.  The Niners still have to believe that they are alive in the NFC West, so they’ll be looking at this game as a must win.  Sadly, Troy Smith is far superior to whatever garbage the Cardinals will throw out there at QB, so the Niners will win comfortably.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 67-62-2 (.519)

All Time on ADPTP: 124-123-4 (.502)

Last Post: 3-5 (.375)

Where does football season go?  As I pointlessly worked as hard as ever to find you winners this week, a task at which I will likely fail, I came across a chilling fact.  College football regular season is almost over.  Most teams have two games left, some may have as many as three.  Not to be over dramatic, but that is ridiculously depressing.  I look forward to football season for the entire span of the offseason, and it is gone in the blink of an eye.  The pro game may have far longer left, but we are already into Week 11, which means just 7 glorious regular season Sundays remain.

I will be the first to admit, I am letting this get to me far too early.  We still have several weeks of the college football regular season left.  We then have the entire bowl season.  In the NFL, we have the 7 regular season Sundays, followed by three weeks of the best action in sports, the NFL playoffs.  Then, we have the final two weeks that culminate in the Super Bowl.  But this feeling shows how great football is, I’m terrified and saddened by its loss before Thanksgiving even hits us.

Here at ADPTP, we take pride in always trying to find the positive.  OK, that’s a blatant lie, we generally disrespect anyone and anything in the most negative way possible, but that’s the direction that I am going today.  Football from Thanksgiving through the Super Bowl is the very reason that we look forward to this sport so much.  Screw the holidays, people love this time of year because football is at its downright best.  The first few months of the season are fantastic and blow any other sport out of the water.  But the stretch run & bowls in college football or the playoff push & playoffs in the NFL?  Untouchable.  The tension is heavy, the weather is cold, and the hits are crisp.

The next two months, as we watch the weather turn from cold to freeze your snot cold, are bearable because of football.  It is the promise of weekends filled with high pressure games that keep us warm on the inside…well, that and the booze.  The bottom line is to enjoy these games because they only come once a year and when they are gone, all you have is the horrid month of February staring you in the face.  The next two months are going to be tremendously enjoyable and as I watch the Packers, tremendously nerve wracking.

On the positive side of things, as least when February hits I can take a brief hiatus from my picks, which are generally terrible.  I went a pedestrian 5-5 last week, with eight picks this week, let’s hope I can come in at 5-3.

NCAA Picks

MICHIGAN ST -20 over Purdue

This is a big spread, but it should be higher than it is.  The Spartans have proven that they are among the elite in the Big Ten and Purdue has lost their last two Big Ten road games by 49 and 34 to Ohio State and Illinois.  With Michigan State coming off of a bye, there is absolutely no reason why they should not roll in this one, their senior’s final home game.  I love the Spartans big.

Virginia Tech -2 over MIAMI

I should have learned my lesson by now to avoid any game that the Hurricanes play in.  Like last year’s version of this team, they are completely unpredictable on a week to week basis.  However, at least partially, that inconsistency is part of the reason for this pick.  They have won two straight ACC games and haven’t won three straight in conference this year or last.  Factor in that I simply believe that the Hokies are the superior team, and I like this line being at just two.  I’ll lay the points and take Vag Tech.

Army +8.5 over Notre Dame

This is a neutral site game, hence no team being capitalized as the home team.  This line is clearly adjusted for the Notre Dame contingent that will bet them regardless of whether it makes logical sense.  The Irish have been wildly inconsistent, while Army has proven to be consistently mediocre, losing to decent teams by one score on multiple occasions.  I don’t have a strong feeling as far as motivational aspects, but this game being over 7 just doesn’t smell quite right.  Take the points.

NFL Picks

Tampa Bay +3 over SAN FRANCISCO

Jake and I discussed this one on the podcast, and we both cannot believe Vegas is calling these even teams.  Tampa Bay has been consistently good, and despite not being a legitimate threat to win the NFC, they find ways to win close games.  San Francisco on the other hand has been given everything before they do anything yet again, and again are disappointing against any decent teams.  At this point I think the Bucs have to been included among decent teams so I’m tickled to be getting points.

Houston +7 over NEW YORK JETS

This is a spot play and one that I like quite a bit.  For the last few years, Houston has consistently finished around 8-8, beating teams that nobody thinks they will and losing to teams that are nowhere near as talented.  The Jets have been letting everybody play close and I don’t believe that their new stadium provides much of a home field advantage.  I actually picked Houston to spring the outright upset in my picks league, so I obviously love them getting a touchdown.  I’d hold off on placing this one until closer to kickoff as it would be incredible value if it gets to 7.5.

Oakland +7.5 over PITTSBURGH

I am not just betting this because it is the name of our mediocre website, or just to post this terrifying picture of Al.  I genuinely like this Raiders team, not as a contender, but as a feisty team that will battle for a playoff spot.  While I still think that the Steelers are ultimately a Super Bowl contender, I think they are currently working through some serious offensive line issues that will cause some problems for a team whose quarterback loves to hold on to the ball as long as possible.  That’s right, take Al Davis plus the points.

Denver +10 over SAN DIEGO & Denver/SAN DIEGO OVER 50.5

I am making it a quartet of road dogs for my NFL picks this week with Denver.  I loved this bet before, but when it became the 7th difference between Jake and I in our picking contest, I was completely sold.  Despite what the statistics tell you, San Diego’s defense is not very good and I expect the Broncos to be able to move the ball.  True, I think the Chargers will put up a lot of points on their own, hence the over play, but I don’t see them running away with it.  I like Denver to keep it somewhat close and even if they fall behind by double digits, I think they are very capable of the garbage time touchdown for a cover.  Take the Broncos and the over.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 64-57-2 (.528)

All Time on ADPTP: 121-118-4 (.506)

Last Post: 5-5- (.500)

How many times have we seen a star collegiate athlete’s eligibility being questioned during the season in which he is achieving great things?  The Cameron Newton situation at Auburn is straight out of a movie and I cannot recall any situation playing out quite like this.  Typically, players who receive improper benefits are busted years later, well after they have moved on to making millions in the pro game.  Instead of the player feeling any real punishment, meaningless wins are retroactively revoked and the current athletes are punished for past sins.  This is a rare case where questions are being thrown about while the team still has games to play and the ultimate champion is still to be determined.

Is Cam Newton guilty of accepting money to sign with Auburn?  If forced to guess, I’d lean yes but quite honestly, I have no idea.  But in this unprecedented ordeal, that really isn’t the issue.  There are plenty of reports that Cam Newton and his dad were demanding money for Cam’s services after he left Florida.  I am certainly not surprised by this, in fact I just assume things like this go on constantly in college football.  Hell, in the SEC, I thought schools could be given their honor badge…I mean put on probation, for not meeting their salary floor on star players.

The real issue is that Cam has proven who he is and that at the very least, he has terrible judgement.  It would be one thing if this came out of nowhere, then I’d be more likely to believe that some bitter Gator fans decided to get him back after leaving their program.  But this is nowhere near Cam’s first run in with trouble.  He threw a stolen laptop out of a window when police arrived, that isn’t arguable.  His 15 moving violations while at Florida aren’t debatable either.  How many tests he failed and whether he was going to be expelled from Florida aren’t quite as clear, but they add to the ever mounting evidence.  All of this proves nothing, but that Cam Newton isn’t a guy we should be cheering for.  Maybe this eventually all fades away and Cam is never found guilty of anything.  In the court of public opinion however, he’s already lost.

I had a monster bounce back week at 6-1 last week, merging my NCAA and NFL picks into one column.  Needless to say I have to stick with what is working, slightly fewer picks and putting them all into one mega write up.  To the picks!

NCAA Picks

NC STATE -18.5 over Wake Forest

A lot of points, but I have to keep riding the Wolfpack!  NC State is a very good offensive team and Wake Forest is brutally bad, especially defensively.  Sneakily, this is already NC State’s final home game too, meaning the seniors will be jacked up.  I love the Wolfpack to roll in this one.

Mississippi St/ALABAMA UNDER 47.5

I have been shying away from over/under’s for the most part lately, but really think this one has too much value to pass up.  Mississippi State tends to play in low scoring games, their conference road game totals have been 36 and 17 thus far.  I expect the Tide to be fighting mad and to play some strong defense in this one.  If you can find the prop bet, I’d also bet on Nick Saban being extremely unlikable during this contest, but sadly, that one is usually off the board.  Take the under.

Stanford -5.5 over ARIZONA ST

A befuddling line if I may say so myself, which I can because I write this goddamn column.  I love Stanford and although they don’t play exquisite defense, they will have no problem hanging 40+ on the Sun Devils.  Arizona St just lost a 34-33 heartbreaker against USC last week which will be a tough loss for this team to bounce back from quickly, which they will need to do against such a fantastic Stanford team.  I like the Trees here, by at least a touchdown.

Oregon/CAL OVER 58.5

When I saw an Oregon over/under set under 60, I almost had a heart attack trying to get my bet in quickly enough before they realized their mistake and fixed the line.  Apparently, my gambling website (Beted.com, highly recommended), wasn’t broken as this is the over/under across the board at all books.  The Ducks lowest total this year was 61 against Tennessee, meaning that they haven’t gone under this total yet.  Call me crazy, but I expect the far superior team to be the one who determines the pace against the hippies from Cal.  Between shedding tears over the failed Prop 19, the Golden Bears have actually had their share of high scoring games too, which is why this total really confuses me.  Four of Cal’s 10 games have gone over this total and they haven’t played anybody with the firepower of Oregon.  Load up on the over.

NFL Picks

ATLANTA -1 over Baltimore & ATLANTA/Baltimore UNDER 44.5

These were already posted and explained, but I wanted to include them here.  Luckily in my actual betting account, I put more money on the line, so I came out ahead.  Here, it counts as 1-1 as the game went over with a 26-21 final.  I still think the under was the right play though as is took a crazy 27 4th quarter points to push this to the over.

Minnesota -1 over CHICAGO

The Bears aren’t very good and as the Vikings proved last week, they are tough to really finish off.  I’ll be pulling for the Bears to cut the head off of this Viking monster, but I expect them to stay alive for another week against this putrid Bears’ offensive line.  Afterwards, Childress and the Vikings are scheduled to have a bonfire, group hug, and sing along at the 50 yard line.  Leave the kids at home if you attend.

St Louis +6 over SAN FRANCISCO & St Louis/SAN FRANCISCO UNDER 38

St. Louis being +6 is absolutely ridiculous against a 49er team that continues to get unwarranted respect.  I would have been mildly outraged at a SF -3 line, because that would insinuate that these two teams are even.  Let me make something clear: the St. Louis Rams are a much better team than the San Francisco 49ers.  Don’t misunderstand, the Niners can certainly win this game, the Rams aren’t world beaters and this is in San Francisco.  But this game should absolutely not be more than a three point line, if that.  I’m also playing the under here as both teams play good defense and struggle to move the ball offensively.  I see a low scoring, boring game that ends up in the teens on both sides.

Philadelphia -3 over WASHINGTON

With Mike Vick it is hard to argue that the Eagles are not one of the best teams in the NFC at this point.  The Redskins have won more games than they deserve and the dysfunction between Shanahan and McNabb is at a rolling boil.  I think Philly comes in and steamrolls a reeling Redskins team that I see falling out of the race over the next few weeks.  Lay the points and take the Eagles.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 59-52-2 (.531)

All Time on ADPTP: 116-113-4 (.506)

Last Post: 6-1 (.857)

I was hoping to get my 55 Percenters up this afternoon but unfortunately, work got in the way.  I’m still hoping to post my weekly picks tonight, but have two for the Thursday Night NFL game that I didn’t want to miss out on.  Here they are:

ATLANTA -1 over Baltimore & ATLANTA/Baltimore UNDER 44.5

I really like a good home team in a Thursday night game as it is hard enough to win on the road against those teams with a full week of preparation.  Factor in that Baltimore is an older team and Atlanta is younger, I like them better on the short week.  I also have made it abundantly clear that I think the Ravens are overvalued right now.  As for the under, 3 of the last 4 years the average scores on Thursday night games have been below the season average on the whole.  I expect these two teams to play in a slugfest this evening.

My previous record and full post will be up soon, hopefully this evening.  Podcast will also be posted then.  Enjoy the game tonight beautiful babies.

The AFC is big, powerful, and insanely dominant over the NFC.  Middle tier AFC teams battling for a playoff spot would be in the mix for a bye week in the wide open NFC.  If an AFC team goes against a NFC team, back the AFC team and you will usually be right.

Those are the things I am hearing about the NFL in the media and the more it gets said, the more it is assumed to be fact.  Here is the thing: it’s not true.  Yes, the AFC boasts six teams with only 1 or 2 losses while the NFC has just two, but that is where the dominance ends.  Seeing as we are only 8 weeks into a 17 week season, the number of powerful teams can undoubtedly even out.  In this space today I am going to be the voice of reason within a chorus of insanity.  The AFC is overrated and the NFL is as wide open as ever.

At this point in the season, AFC teams are 20-17 against NFC teams.  Yes, that is above .500, but it certainly does not point to the massive gap that most pundits claim and is well within a reasonable differential between two even conferences.  It just so happens that the AFC is loaded with teams who records don’t match their actual abilities.  While the NFC has these teams (I’m looking at you Tampa Bay), they are in abundance in the AFC.  I’ll quickly run through the teams I see as overvalued, even though it is not the popular opinion at this time.

New York Jets (5-2)

The oh-so-powerful Jets came hulking into the season with their Hard Knocks fame and loudly stated Super Bowl aspirations.  After reeling off five in a row, they were supposed to destroy the beat up Packers from the lowly NFC.  However, when you look deeper, this Jets team hasn’t been all that dominant, even during that win streak.  The Jets were out gained in their games against Miami, Minnesota, and Denver, despite finding ways to get the W.  I will be the first to agree that winning those games is part of being a good team, but legions of fans wanted to anoint the Jets champions for this “dominance”.  The Jets are a solid team, but nothing more, and as the Packer game showed, they aren’t leaps and bounds better than those in the NFC.

Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

I have made it very clear in the podcast that I am not sold on this team being among the elite.  Again, they have reached 5-2 but with what?  An ugly 10-9 win over the also overrated Jets in the opening week?  A last minute win over a Big Ben-less Pittsburgh team that was already thrilled to be 3-0?  Or is it the overtime loss where they were outgained by the Patriots that is supposed to set my heart ablaze?  The Ravens are a decent team that lost to Cincinnati and was pushed to the limit by both Cleveland and Buffalo.  I said it in the podcast and I will say it again: this Ravens team is not a threat in the AFC.  I absolutely guarantee that they do not reach the Super Bowl.  I will of course get ridiculed saying that I’m not making a very bold prediction, but there is a reason I won’t go as far as to say they’ll miss the playoffs: the AFC is nowhere near as good as people want to argue.

Tennessee Titans (5-3)

The Titans are another team that has an impressive record, but not as much on field production that should be expected to go with it.  They got pushed around Sunday by a desperate Charger team.  They beat the Giants by 19, a seemingly dominant performance over a top NFC team, but that score was deceiving.  The Giants out gained the Titans in that game by two hundred yards, but found a way to turn the ball over enough to lose handily.  I am perfectly willing to admit that yardage totals can be deceiving.  By yardage, the Chargers and Cowboys are elite, but you cannot entirely dismiss them either.  This Titans team has found ways to win, but getting a team like Philadelphia when they are banged up beyond recognition (No Vick, no DeSean Jackson, hurt LeSean McCoy for starters) is a huge help.  The Titans are another pretty good team getting hyped up as elite because they are in the AFC.

Houston Texans (4-3)

I think most people are finally off the “Houston is finally really good!” bandwagon, but it lasted far longer than it should have.  Houston is wildly inconsistent and occasionally find ways to win games that it seems they shouldn’t.  But at this point, their inconsistency is consistent and there is no reason to view them as anything but a team that will finish around 8-8, give or take a game.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

I like the Chiefs.  I am pulling for the Chiefs.  But honestly, everybody knows they are a fraud.  They play in a bad division, have an insanely easy schedule, and have a passing game that would embarrass Art Shell.  You cannot be elite in the NFL when your quarterback is completing 58% of his passes and averaging a tidy 171 yards per game, no matter what Rex Ryan tells you.  The Chiefs will probably win the AFC West and finish 10-6 or better with that schedule.  The AFC pundits will try to tell you that they are more proof of the utterly “dominant” AFC.  I hope that this is the case…so I can bet the house against Matt Cassel in the playoffs.  

There are more teams and more stats, but you get the point of my argument.  The AFC and NFC are extremely even, but the way the first half of the NFL season has played out has given the AFC the breaks.  These things find a way of evening out and I fully expect them to this year as well.

Speaking of overvalued, my resurrection last week did not quite happen as I envisioned it.  I went 2-5-1 to drive my season down further, now with two horrible weeks in a row.  I’m mixing it up a little this week (God knows I need to), giving you my NCAA and NFL bets in one column, with just 7 total bets.  I’m not greedy, I’m just begging to go 4-3.  To the picks!

NCAA Picks

NC State +3.5 over CLEMSON

I continue my unbelievable streak of betting on NC State seemingly every week.  The reasoning stays the same: they continue to be undervalued despite performing consistently all season long.  It was one thing earlier in the year, but at this point I am legitimately baffled as to why nobody will respect them as a solid team.  Clemson on the other hand has underperformed most of the year, yet sit as three and half point favorite here.  Take the Wolfpack and the points.

Arizona/STANFORD OVER 56

A Stanford game being under 60 feels like stealing.  They can score on anyone and even Washington State found a way to get 28 on the board against them.  Arizona is known as more of a “defensive” Pac 10 team, but that is like calling chlamydia the “best” STD.  5 of Arizona’s 8 games have still hit at least 50 total points and there is no doubt that Stanford will drive this total high.  I love the over.

BYU -18.5 over UNLV

I’m leery because the Cougars are nowhere near as good as they have been the last few years and three scores is a lot to give.  But UNLV has been brutally bad on the road where their closest loss was a 30-7 undressing at Idaho.  BYU is coming off of a bye week and the Mormons will be thirsty for a comfortable win.  The Cougs big.

NFL Picks

NY Giants -7 over SEATTLE

Word is out the Matt Hasselbeck will not play on Sunday, yet this line is somehow still at 7.  I recommend betting this immediately as it will certainly move by kickoff.  Charlie Whitehurst was a turnover machine in the preseason and you can just tell by looking at him that he has no future as a NFL quarterback.  The team’s “big” move was to sign Zac Robinson off of the practice squad to be Whitehurst’s backup on Sunday, and Robinson habitually disappointed in college.  Despite the 12th man in Seattle, the Giants roll on Sunday.

ATLANTA -8.5 over Tampa Bay

I steadily talked myself from this line being too high, to Atlanta covering, to making it one of my picks which is almost certainly a losing progression.  But as we went over in the podcast, the Bucs have gotten throttled in both games against good teams and the Falcons are coming off of a bye week.  I like Atlanta to pull away in the second half and win comfortably.

San Diego -3 over HOUSTON

I was surprised that this line was in San Diego’s favor, but love it nonetheless.  The Texans are coming off a demoralizing Monday night loss to their biggest rival and Andre Johnson is nowhere near 100%.  You add to that their atrocious pass defense against Philip Rivers, who despite being a douche has been unstoppable, and I can see this one getting very ugly.  I think this will be the low point of the season for Houston, they get throttled.

Pittsburgh -5 over CINCINNATI

Again, as I said on the podcast, I love this bet.  The Bengals just aren’t very good and the Steelers are going to want to bounce back from their tough Halloween loss in New Orleans.  This Bengals team is looking for any reason to pack it in for the season and the Steelers’ physical (i.e cheap and dirty) defense is a big enough one.  A snoozer on Monday night, Steelers big.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 53-51-2 (.509)

All Time on ADPTP: 110-112-4 (.496)

Last Post: 2-5-1 (.313)

Last week was brutal, derailing my fantastic 2010 picking season.  I went 2-8 on college picks last week and many of them weren’t even close.  But it is time to be strong minded, I will not turn into the Cubs and fold when it matters most.  This time of year gamblers have to work harder anyway as Vegas has figured out all of the teams.  This deep in the season, it is very difficult to find lines with as much value as you can find earlier in the year.  Now is when hard work pays off.  If you study the games hard, sift through the numbers, put a bright light on motivating factors, and find trends, you can still find winners. 

Really, this isn’t that different from actual college football teams.  When late October rolls around, teams don’t have many tricks left in the bag that haven’t been shown on tape at least once.  Teams know what the other team is going to run, what their opponent’s strengths and weaknesses are, and it simply comes down to execution.  As players get tired late in the season, mental focus usually dissipates as well.  When a good team plays a team that has struggled through the season’s first two months, let down games become more prevalent.  That is why this time of the year often gives us big time upsets and general unpredictability.

Teams also have to get over the general malaise of losing a few games.  Some teams, especially those that came into the season with high expectations, can let things really slip away if they find that they can no longer achieve those expectations.  That is why trends become so important.  Vegas doesn’t use trends very strongly in their lines, instead, they take more of a holistic approach to the season numbers when setting their lines.  Young teams can often pull things together and go on a hot streak, while some of the teams that I mentioned, with slipping expectations, can crumble under that disappointment.

Our job as gamblers remains what it always is.  Find the values and exploit them.  I may have struggled last week, but I’m still sitting well over .500 for the season and can get back to my goal of 55% with one good week.  Let’s hope my work this week pays off…to the picks!

NCAA Picks

Clemson/BOSTON COLLEGE OVER 41.5

I always like over/under’s set in the low 40’s between two teams that I wouldn’t qualify as defensive teams.  No, neither of these two teams have particularly explosive offenses, but they don’t really stop people either.  Boston College’s last four games have gone over this total, all conference games like this one.  Clemson’s last three have actually gone under, but all have been within 5 points, and weren’t against teams where high scores are the norm.  I like Clemson to win, but I think they allow enough points to put this one over.

Northwestern -3 over INDIANA

This is one of a couple of picks where Jake and I agree, which likely means you should run the other way.  With that said, this line makes absolutely no sense to me.  While games like that usually scare me away, I cannot come up with a reason not to make this bet.  Possibly Northwestern will have some let down after a tough loss to Michigan State last week, but this Indiana team is horrible.  Indiana is 0-3 in the Big Ten and the Wildcats are a decent program that I don’t see falling to 1-3 at the bottom of this conference.  With this line at three, Vegas is calling this game slightly better than a coin flip.  But it’s not…take Northwestern and lay the points.

Wake Forest +5.5 over MARYLAND

I see that Deacons as a value play going forward as they are not as bad as their record is showing.  They have lost 5 straight games, but against a tough schedule that has included Stanford, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Navy, and Virginia Tech.  Meanwhile, they are playing a 5-2 Maryland team that has gotten there by beating the dredges of Division 1 college football.  Wake is coming off of a bye and will no doubt be hungry for a win.  Meanwhile, the Terps are probably a bit satisfied with their 5-2 record and frankly, aren’t anywhere near talented enough to overcome anything but a complete effort.  I like the Deacons straight up, getting +180 on the money line, so obviously love them getting 5.5.

Michigan St +6.5 over IOWA

First off, I want to mention how absolutely thrilled I was to see the cut to a guy in the Iowa crowd crying last week after the Badgers beat them.  I don’t even have that much hatred for Iowa fans (some don’t get me wrong, but it isn’t overpowering).  But I was so happy to get the win and to see that guy sobbing like a child brought me great joy.  Moving on, here is the other pick where Jake and I agree.  Initially, I marked this down as the loss for Michigan St that would knock them out of the national title picture.  But the more I look at this game, the more I have changed my mind.  First, everybody, and I mean everybody, is on Iowa in this game, as the -6.5 line goes to show.  Second, Sparty had their let down in the 1st half against Northwestern a week ago and found a way to pull the game out.  With all of the talk about how they are destined to lose, I have no doubt that they will be completely ready to play.  Third, looking at the numbers, I’m beginning to believe that Iowa may just be an average team.  They got beat by Arizona, Wisconsin at home, and even coming off their bye, got wildly out gained by Michigan despite winning by 10.  Iowa is coming off of a tough loss and is unquestionably the side with more motivational issues this week.  On top of all that, Michigan State is getting almost a touchdown in this one, which should probably be -3 at most.  Take the points, Iowa may win, but they won’t roll.

Missouri +7.5 over NEBRASKA

This is the one of my picks that I don’t really like.  Nebraska is the better team and Missouri just won their biggest game of the year over Oklahoma.  Being over a touchdown though, this feels like a rare value this late in the year.   Let’s move on before I change my mind.

OREGON ST -3 over Cal

The Beavers are a good team and got a bye week after the brutal run in their scheduled, ended by an overtime loss at Washington.  Cal on the other hand has just finished playing their two rivals in UCLA and USC, followed by a blowout win over Arizona St.  Oregon State has a true homefield advantage and should be ready to go on Saturday.  I was surprised to see this game down at -3 and will gladly lay the points.

East Carolina +7.5 over UCF

This is another line that seems off.  East Carolina is a solid team, extremely strong offensively, that has dominated Conference USA over the last few seasons.  Central Florida has played well too and this game is pretty clearly going to determine the league’s ultimate champion.  But ECU beat UCF by 5 a year ago and I see no reason to believe that this game shouldn’t go down to the wire as well.  Getting two scores makes no sense to me, so I’ll take the Pirates and the points.

Florida +2.5 over Georgia

I’m a little frustrated because this line was initially Georgia -3, which I absolutely loved, but is has since dropped to -2.5.  Still, I absolutely love the Gators here.  At the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, neither team has any promise of going anywhere great this time around.  Florida has lost three straight SEC games, is getting bashed from every angle, and had a bye week to regain their focus.  Meanwhile, everybody is suddenly on this Georgia team because after a brutal start, they have pulled out three straight games.  Here’s the thing: they beat Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky the week after they beat South Carolina, about as easy a three game stretch as you can possibly find in this conference.  The Gators will come ready to play while I expect Georgia to fall flat.  I like the Gators big on Saturday.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 51-46-1 (.526)

All Time on ADPTP: 108-107-3 (.502)

Last Post: 2-2 (.500)

I managed to go 2-8 yesterday in college games, officially killing the roll I have been on this season.  Here are some quick fire NFL picks, I need to get right back on the horse.

NFL Picks

Philadelphia +3 over TENNESSEE

Philly is a better team and Tennessee, like Washington in my college picks, is a zig and zag team.  They zigged last week by dominating the Jags, so I expect them to trip up this week.  I like the Eagles getting points.

Washington +3 over CHICAGO

The Bears aren’t very good and the Skins are solid at getting to the quarterback, the Bears Achilles heel.  I think they force a few Jay Cutler mistakes and in typical Donovan McNabb team style, win ugly.

Buffalo +14 over BALTIMORE

At two touchdowns, I like the Bills coming off of a bye.  The Ravens have played a brutal early schedule and as I said in the podcast, I’m don’t think Joe Flacco is very good.  With that said, you have to worry a bit here because well, the Bills suck.

Arizona +7 over SEATTLE

On the podcast picks I took Seattle, but I was torn at -5.5.  Now that the line has hit a touchdown, I definitely like the Cards.  The Seahawks are better at home, but I don’t trust them to beat much of anybody by two scores.  Take the Cards if you can get a full 7.

Apparently I think taking 4 road teams is the way to turn this around.  Enjoy your Sunday, big game tonight!

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 49-44-1 (.527)

All Time on ADPTP: 106-105-3 (.502)

Last Post: 2-8 (.200)

As you all know, I’m an idiot.  I forgot to post two of my picks.  Luckily, they are both night games, so here they are, quick fire style.

Texam A&M -13.5 over KANSAS

Kansas sucks and I think A&M will bounce back from an embarrassing performance a week ago against Missouri.  I like the Aggies big.

North Carolina +6.5 over MIAMI

I like this one a lot, although it is a little scary because the Hurricanes are so unpredictable.  I expect a good team and Miami struggles against well coached teams like the Heels.  Take the points.

Enjoy the games!