The first BCS Rankings have been released, leading to a fury of talk regarding what two teams will play for the National Championship on January 10th.  Oklahoma and Oregon are currently ranked numbers one and two respectively, and fairly obviously, will likely remain there if they keep winning.  Oregon rolled last night, 60-13 over UCLA, and have looked like the best team in the country all season.  I feel very confident saying that they are unbeatable in Eugene.  Despite being so good, finishing undefeated is nowhere near a certainty.  The Pac 10 is very deep this year, and they still have USC, Washington , Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State on the schedule, with three of those being on the road.  They have the talent to win each of those games, but I wouldn’t be shocked it they stumble.

Oklahoma is the top team in the initial BCS rankings and I think they are being overvalued.  The Big 12 is a mediocre conference, which gives Oklahoma a legitimate chance to navigate the season undefeated despite being a very beatable team.  They still have four road dates though, starting with Missouri this week, and Texas A&M, Baylor, and Oklahoma St. throughout the rest of the year.  I would guess that they find a way to drop one of those games, although as you’ll see in my picks, I don’t think it will be this week.

The SEC currently has two undefeated teams, LSU and Auburn, two teams that I have proclaimed to be overvalued.  I’ve slowly converted into a believer on Auburn, but I still do not think they have what it takes to run the SEC table.  Their remaining scary games are home against LSU this week, at Alabama in the final regular season game, and whoever they would play in the SEC title game.  They will probably lose a game, but if not, there is no way an undefeated SEC team is getting left out of the big game.  As for LSU, with Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and at least two more Les Miles brain farts still on the schedule, I think we can cross them off despite the 7-0 record.

Michigan State is the final major conference undefeated team and is an interesting case.  Their only truly difficult game left is at Iowa next week, a game they will probably lose.  If they somehow pull that game out, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, and Penn St don’t seem aligned to cause any major problems.  The Spartans could sneak in simply because the most difficult portion of their mediocre schedule has already been played.

That leaves the real debate: Boise State and TCU.  I’m not going to bother going through their easy schedules, but the possibility is becoming closer and closer to reality: these could be the only two undefeated teams in college football when the regular season is said and done.  We have a long way to go and a lot of good teams need to lose, but as you can see, it is not an impossible circumstance.  You think a Rangers-Giants World Series would be a ratings disaster?  At least the MLB has given up any real hope of pulling in a big number.  If the National Championship Game is a Boise-TCU tilt, the rating would be a blow to the BCS.  I absolutely don’t want it to happen…but I’ll be honest, part of me wants to see the BCS world crumble.

I struggled to a 4-6 record on my college picks last week, but was bailed out by my big time 5-1-1 record on the NFL.  I struggled with this week’s college lines, but hopefully I picked the right ones.  To the picks!

NCAA Picks

Rutgers +12.5 over PITTSBURGH

I don’t know why, but I always love to get some action on 11 AM Big East games!  I’ve been on a roll with my Big East picks, so hopefully that continues here.  Pitt dominated Syracuse last week (as predicted here!), but I was quite baffled by this line.  I cannot see them beating Rutgers by two touchdowns, I expect a close game in this one.  Take the Scarlet Knights and the points.

Penn St -9.5 over MINNESOTA

This is a rare game where I have decided to throw the numbers out of the window, at least to a degree.  Penn St. is not very good this year, I’ll fully admit that, but I do expect them to play one of their better games of the season coming off of some tough losses and a bye week.  Meanwhile, the Gophers are terrible and just fired their coach, meaning this team will again be woefully unprepared come Saturday morning.  I expect the Nittany Lions to have their biggest win of the year, easily covering this -9.5 spread.

Colorado St. +30.5 over UTAH

I usually just avoid games with this big of a line, but was very surprised to see this one hit thirty.  Colorado St. is bad but they are at least feisty and Utah only beat them by 7 a year ago.  Yes, that game was in Colorado St and this Utah team is better than they were last year, but this strikes me as a comfortable, but not out of hand win for the Utes.  I’ll take five scores and hope that the Rams can hold on.

Nebraska/OKLAHOMA ST UNDER 60

I am mildly leery to pick this under, mostly because I can see Nebraska hanging 40 on the Cowboys.  However, in a big game like this, I typically lean towards the under when it gets this high.  Unquestionably, Nebraska is the best defense that Oklahoma St has seen this year and I expect them to slow down the previously high powered offense.  With that said, the Cowboys should be able to move the ball enough and play decent enough defense to keep the Huskers from going crazy offensively.  The high scoring Cowboys played equally high scoring Texas Tech to a 34-17 final last week, so they clearly aren’t a lock to play in a high scoring game every week.  Take the under, but don’t bet the house.

Lsu/AUBURN OVER 52

Now this over/under I had around 60 and was very surprised to see it all the way down at 52.  Granted, LSU is not Arkansas is terms of playing in shootouts, but Auburn combined for 108 points last week!  This Auburn team is an up and down the field offense that plays average defense, at best.  I think LSU is actually similar to that type of team as well, although obviously not to the degree of Auburn, but simply have played a schedule that skews towards lower scoring games.  I fully expect this game to get near, or into the thirties for both teams, meaning that it goes comfortably over.  I don’t have a full fledged favorite this week, but if pressured, I’d probably tag this bet my favorite.

Oklahoma -3 over MISSOURI

I did say that I think Oklahoma will lose a game, but I don’t think it will be this week to Missouri.  Now, let’s make it clear, we have seen this formula before.  Number one team in the country going into a good, hostile environment for a night game.  Yes, we’ve seen that formula lead to an upset two straight weeks (Bama’s loss was actually a mid afternoon start) and we cannot ignore that possibility.  Missouri has played well to start 6-0, but haven’t played a team that I would even call “pretty good” to this point.  I expect Missouri to come out fired up with a raucous crowd, but I think Oklahoma will hang tough for the first half.  Come the second half, I expect talent to win out and the Sooners to pull away.  I’ll lay the three and guess that our streak of #1’s going down is over for now.

Air Force +18.5 over TCU

I am definitely taking more big dogs than I usually do, but I didn’t expect this line to get quite this big.  I actually am holding off to actually place this bet until close to kickoff because big favorites like this tend to get bet hard, meaning we may be able to get Air Force at +20 by the time the game arrives.  Air Force is a little undervalued for my liking, despite their losing -1 against San Diego State for me a week ago.  I expect TCU to get the win, but I expect a slugfest that TCU wins by two scores.

Washington +6.5 over ARIZONA

This is the last game Saturday night, so you get a double dip with a bet and some late action.  Arizona’s quarterback, Nick Foles is expected to miss this one, and Arizona has made a habit over the last two years of letting teams hang around until the finish.  I don’t expect that to change without their quarterback.  Washington frightens me a little, they have zigged and zagged all year and last week was a zig with a win over Oregon State.  I think they’ll play well enough to keep this game close though, I’m taking the points.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 47-36-1 (.565)

All Time on ADPTP: 104-97-3 (.517)

Last Post: 9-7-1 (.559) - Combined NCAA/NFL last week

Betting the NFL is hard, in my opinion, far harder than betting college games.  That is why when I saw that I had seven NFL bets this weekend, I was a little leery.  Pro football is a fickle beast and seemingly unpredictable.  With that said, this year has become different for me.  I am starting to see the zigs and zags before they come.  I have only posted my NFL picks the last two weeks, but have managed a good 6-4 record and was doing well in the few weeks I didn’t post them.  My only bad week was when I got destroyed in Week 1, but I think the lesson I learned there is to tread very lightly early in a NFL season.

The reasoning for my sudden NFL success is because of what I mentioned in my landmines post: motivation.  I have realized that in a league where the difference in talent between the elite and the terrible is so small, you have to think through the numbers and the team’s mindset heading into the game.  A perfect example is Chicago -6 over Seattle this week, a pick that I love on paper.  However, the Bears have to be somewhat satisfied with their 4-1 start, while the Seahawks had a bye week after looking terrible against the Rams two weeks ago.  I still think the Bears cover, but the fact that the Seahawks will want this game more than the Bears makes it a stay away for me.

My NFL turnaround has been brief and is unquestionably a small sample size.  I know by posting this I am essentially guaranteeing myself a terrible week.  But I feel good about my progress in picking NFL games and I wear my heart on my sleeve here at ADPTP.  To the now cursed picks!

NFL Picks

ST LOUIS +8 over San Diego

I was the guy saying that everybody was a little too head over heels for the Rams last week, hence my Detroit -3 pick, but I certainly didn’t see them getting eviscerated by the Lions.  While they may not be great, San Diego has been bad on the road, 0-3, and it is an absolute fact that Norv Turner coached teams erode over time.  Between holdouts, losing free agents, and aging, isn’t it entirely possible that the Chargers, especially defensively, just aren’t all that good?  I don’t feel great about this one, but see too much value in getting over a touchdown against the Chargers on the road.  I’ll take the points.

Atlanta +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA

It sounds fairly certain that Kevin Kolb will start at quarterback Sunday, which isn’t terrible for the Eagles, but he certainly isn’t Mike Vick.  Philly is banged up and coming back from a West coast Sunday night game, meaning less time to prepare compared to a relatively well rested Falcons squad.  Atlanta isn’t flashy and isn’t great on the road, but I think that they are the better team and should be more ready to play than the Eagles.  I like Atlanta comfortably.

Quick side rant before moving on.  People are referring to Mike Vick as wanting to play in this game for “revenge” against his old team.  Really?  Let me get this straight, Mike Vick is supposedly holding a grudge because a team drafted him, paid him huge sums of money, gave him every opportunity to become the face of their organization, and then reluctantly let him go after a heinously violent felony that landed him in prison for a long stretch.  Wow, how DARE they treat him that way!??!  He must be furious!  That would be almost as bad as the Vikings cutting ties with Brad Childress if it came out that he touched children.  Not that I want to be responsible for starting a ridiculous rumor like Brad Childress is a child molester.

MINNESOTA -1.5 over Dallas

Speaking of Brad, here is his team, the Vikings coming home after a tough Monday night loss to the Jets.  Typically, I am hesitant to bet teams after a tough Monday night game, but this Viking team knows that their season is near the breaking point.  Falling to 1-4 with games against the Packers and Patriots on the docket would be damn near a kiss of death.  While the Cowboys season is also likely on the line, seeing a Wade Phillips coached team completely fall apart under stress wouldn’t be a shocking revelation.  At this point, the immortal Art Shell may be able to instill more confidence into the Cowboys than the Marshmallow with a Headset.  Vikings win this one, they aren’t done yet.

Miami +3.5 over GREEN BAY

Ugh.  This one literally makes me sick to put in, but it’s probably one of my favorite picks of the week.  The line has moved up to -3.5 from where Jake and I picked it (-1.5) due to Rodgers appearing good to go.  Regardless, the Packers are beyond banged up, even assuming that ARodg does play on Sunday.  I still think there is a chance that he is a late scratch, which gives this pick a small added edge.  The main reason for this pick though isn’t even related to the Packers injury problems.  The Dolphins are coming off a bye week, where good coaches have unbelievably good records the next week.  I know he is still young as a head coach, but I think the Tony Sparano fits the bill of a good coach who can make good use of an extra week to prepare.  Last year they lost a tough game to the Saints after their bye week and the year before, they knocked off the Chargers.  I hate to say it, but taking the points is the right play.

NEW ENGLAND -2.5 over Baltimore

Another spot play here as the Pats are coming off of their bye, where Bill Belichick has a sparkling 11-0 record in his career.  The Ravens are a good team, but have had a very demanding early season schedule and seem primed for a let down.  This game has casual gamblers jumping all over the Ravens as Vegas rakes in the profits.  Take the Pats and put your faith in Belichick.

New York Jets/DENVER OVER 41.5

Rarely do I play NFL over/unders, but this one jumped out at me.  Denver can throw it and only throw it, where the Jets defense has been surprisingly average this year, ranked 24th in pass defense.  Darelle Revis pushed his hamstring too early last week and seems almost certain to miss Sunday’s game, knocking their secondary down a few pegs.  Meanwhile, the Jets are one of the best running teams in the league and Denver’s run defense is purely dreadful.  I expect a game that goes up and down the field and 41.5 is not high enough for that type of game.  The over is the play.

Indianapolis -3 over WASHINGTON

Jake and I are on the same page here, taking Peyton Manning in a night game.  I still insist that the Redskins aren’t all that good and was furious after calling it last week, only to watch the Packers literally fall apart in DC.  Take the Colts.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 38-29-0 (.567)

All Time on ADPTP: 95-90-2 (.513)

Last Post: 3-2 (.600)

October 11th, 2003.  I was a freshman at the University of Wisconsin and had enjoyed my first four home football games.  I knew the routine, the chants, and the vulgar cheers.  But this day was going to be different.  Defending national champion, owners of a 19 game winning streak, #3 Ohio State Buckeyes were coming to town.  This wasn’t a regular home game either.  No, we weren’t looking at the standard 11 AM start, a nationally televised 2:30 start, or even a normal night game at 6 or 7 PM.  The Badger-Buckeye game was scheduled for an 8 PM local start…giving us the entire day to prepare, by which I mean drink heavily.

Who was us?  Well, my friends Joe (we’ll call him Hoy) and Brendan (we’ll call him BC) made the trip up Friday night in preparation for Saturday’s game.  Needless to say we drank heavily Friday night and proceeded to pass out.  Saturday morning, at approximately 9 AM, we began to stir and talk about the day ahead.  Being absolute degenerates, young guys ready to party like never before, we pulled out the handle of Captain Morgan’s.  Keep in mind, freshman in college aren’t exactly nuanced drinkers.  To us, Captain was the pinnacle of drinking.  We proceeded to pass the handle around at 9 AM, taking massive pulls out of the bottle.  This was obviously necessary as kickoff was just 11 hours away.

We proceeded to play some video games and cash the entire handle by about 11:30.  Already good and drunk, we headed out to a house party some friends were hosting just a couple blocks from Camp Randall.  Being quite a walk from the dorms, we ran into quite a few Buckeye fans along the way and may or may not have chanted “FUCK THE BUCKS!” at them, regardless of whether children were in the group.  I mean honestly, bringing children to a game in Madison when you are the defending national champs…if you don’t expect drunken shenanigans, you are kidding yourself.

We proceeded to slam beer from our arrival at the party all the way up until around 7:30, as kickoff approached.  This wasn’t casual beer drinking, there was slamming beers, beer bongs, keg stands, beer pong, and possibly some shots over the course of the day.  Along the way we met the large black man selling red and white beads who sang a song that myself, Hoy, and BC sing to this day, “Badger Beads…Badger Beads…G-g-g-g-g-g-g-getcha Badger Beads!”.  I’m sure this isn’t funny to you, but for us, Badger Beads will always have a special place in our hearts.

Insanely drunk by 7:30 PM, we headed over to the stadium.  At one point, we passed people giving away Badger gear if you signed up for a credit card.  Hoy proceeded to steal one of the clipboards, held it above his head yelling “I HAVE A CLIPBOARD!” as we headed in the stadium, and finally asked me to break it over his head.  I obliged and naturally, the other drunken students cheered over our amazing feat.

As shocking as it may sound, drinking enough to kill an average sized family or breaking a clipboard over Drunk Hoy’s head wasn’t the most amazing feat that day.  The game began to an insanely raucous crowd and it was a slugfest.  Badger quarterback Jim Sorgi had to leave the game after some Buckeye Prick (typical, that should be their goddamn mascot) decided to choke him in a pile.  Unfortunately for the perpetrator, Robert Reynolds, it was caught on camera and he was later suspended.  After Sorgi went out, the game continued to go back and forth, until finally, with 6:09 left on the clock, Ohio State tied the game at 10.  The writing was on the wall.  Our quarterback was out, the Buckeyes won their national title by pulling out close game after close game and they had just evened the score late.  We had prepped all day but at this point, it seemed bleak.

Then it happened.  The most exciting college football player I had the privilege of watching at UW made the play.  With 5:20 left, Lee Evans streaked down the sidelines and caught a 79 yard touchdown from backup quarterback Matt Schabert.  We cheered like crazy and that play sparked us to have the energy left to make deafening noise for Ohio State’s attempt to tie it back up.  They couldn’t, the Badgers won, the student section stormed the field, and the rest is history.

After that game, you might think we partied until all hours of the night.  The truth is, we were gassed.  We went back to the dorms, sprawled out throughout the room, ordered some Toppers, and proceeded to watch the highlights on ESPN over and over while rehashing the game with one another.  The game had worn off the buzz and we could barely speak, being in Section O, we had been screaming “OOOOOOOOOO!” for 3 1/2 straight hours, our voices were shot.  We went to bed full of Toppers and beer, content that our Badgers had just knocked off the National Champs.

Obviously, I tell this story because #1 Ohio State is coming into the hornet’s nest that is Camp Randall on Saturday Night for a 6 PM kickoff.  Personally, I like to think that the 2 hours earlier kickoff is due to a lesson learned on October 11, 2003.  The Buckeyes better be ready because I can guarantee one thing: the Camp Randall faithful will be.

NCAA Picks

Thursday - WEST VIRGINIA -10.5 over South Florida

If you want to join me on this one, the game is tonight, so get on it.  West Virginia is a team that plays significantly better at home and despite playing a poor South Florida team, the Morgantown crowd will be completely into a nationally televised night game.  South Florida was outgained by almost 100 yards by Syracuse last week and got throttled in their only game against a Top 25 team, when they played the Gators.  The Mountaineers roll tonight.

NC State -7 over EAST CAROLINA & NC St/ECU OVER 67

I seem to bet on the NC State game almost every week but for whatever reason, everybody refuses to give them respect as a good team.  Both of these teams have dominated games offensively.  The primary difference is that NC State plays mediocre defense while East Carolina has allowed over 40 points in all but one of their games.  I don’t see this game being any different, as I fully expect the Wolfpack to get into the 40’s.  So for the over, I have to ask, can the good ECU offense put up 30 on NC State’s average defense?  The answer is yes and I expect a final somewhere around 45-31 in what should be a very exciting game.

Pitt -1 over SYRACUSE

Pitt has been bad and the Orange have been surprisingly decent, which explains the tightness of this line.  The Panthers have been battling without or with an injured Dion Lewis, whose shoulder injury final seems to be healing.  Throw in that Syracuse is a little satisfied with their bloated 4-1 record and I expect the hungry Panthers to take care of business on Saturday.

Iowa -3 over MICHIGAN

I’m leery to say how much I love this pick because of last week.  I pimped the Cuse/South Florida over, calling it one of my favorite bets of the entire season, before watching the two struggle to a 13-9 finish.  However, I’m going to put myself out their again, and proclaim this to also be one of my favorite bets of the season.  The Hawkeyes are coming off of a bye week, while Michigan is coming off of a tough home loss to in state rival, Michigan State.  Iowa has the better players and the better coach, when Kirk Ferentz has been given an extra week to prepare for the spread offense the Michigan will throw at them.  I love Iowa and expect them to win easily, even in the Big House.  Let’s just say that if I’m wrong, my sportsbetting account will be hurting as badly as my pride.

Vanderbilt +14.5 over GEORGIA

I just don’t think Georgia is all that good and Mark Richt is basically waiting to be fired.  I’ll take pretty much any D1 team getting three scores against them.

Oklahoma St +3.5 over TEXAS TECH

Don’t bet this one.  That’s what I’ve tried to tell myself, unsuccessfully.  This line is off, there is no way that the Red Raiders should be giving more than a field goal to the 5-0 Cowboys when they are at best a middle of the road Big 12 team.  It truly seems like Vegas is begging us to take the Cowboys here at +3.5.  Despite my head telling me otherwise and years of gambling lessons learned, I am biting on this fishy line.  Feel free to call me a moron when Texas Tech rolls.

Air Force -1 over SAN DIEGO ST

Another of my favorite bets this week, I love Air Force in an essential pick ‘em with the Aztecs.  San Diego State has improved, but Air Force is still the superior team.  Look for the Falcons to control the clock with their run game, keeping their defense fresh for the powerful Aztec passing game.  Giving less than a field goal, Air Force is definitely the pick.

Arkansas +4 over AUBURN

I am very surprised that this game isn’t the classic home team -3 line.  Two very good teams in the SEC doing battle, it seems completely logical to me that Auburn should be giving a field goal.  Even at that line, I would consider taking the Razorbacks.  Auburn is a good, but overrated team, Arkansas is a good, but underrated team, and I’ll take Bobby Petrino over Gene Chizik on the sidelines any day of the week.  Don’t get me wrong, Petrino is a coward and a rat, but he’s a solid coach and has Ryan Mallet at quarterback.  I think this line is boosted a point merely because Auburn is still undefeated, which realistically, has no impact on this game.  Take the points and the Razorbacks.

Ohio State vs. Wisconsin

The line is Ohio State -3.5.  After telling my story about the 2003 game, I really want to take the Badgers at home, where I know first hand how crazy the crowd will be.  The problem is that I think Ohio State is really good and the Badgers aren’t very good.  That’s a bad combination.  I have to make it three weeks in a row…

Ohio St -3.5 over WISCONSIN

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 38-29-0 (.567)

All Time on ADPTP: 95-90-2 (.513)

Last Post: 3-2 (.600)

This is just a quick hit NFL 55 Percenter article for those degenerates who want some picks for Sunday’s games.  This was my worst college weekend of the year, but I’ve battled back to 5-7 with Hawaii +10.5 pending, they are currently up 14-10 at the half.  Oh well, I was due for a stinker and if I can pull out 6-7, I won’t be to upset.  For the second straight week, the pick I raved about blew up in my face.  Last week it was Indy -7 and this week it was South Florida/Syracuse over.  The moral is obvious: if I’m overconfident, go the other way.  To the picks!

NFL Picks

Atlanta -3 over CLEVELAND

With the pros, I am beginning to learn that you need to study the numbers to find good picks and then consider motivation before locking into that game.  In this game, Atlanta is clearly the better team and the stats back that up.  Atlanta struggled last week against the 49ers but it made sense, they had just come off a huge overtime win against the Saints and were due for a let down.  Meanwhile, Cleveland pulled their big upset over Cincinnati last week, meaning that this is their natural let down week.  Add to the mix a healthy dose of Jake Delhomme, which will kill any progress made by the Browns’ offense and lift any gambler’s spirits, and you have yourself a great pick.  Atlanta -3 is the play, get in before it jumps to -3.5.  Seriously, go do it now…even Matt Ryan approves of this pick.

DETROIT -3 over St. Louis

A gambling sin, taking the Lions minus points.  However, the Lions have found a nice groove with Shaun Hill at quarterback and should be able to move the ball against the Rams.  As I said in the podcast, the Rams are clearly improved as well, but don’t overrate them for playing three home games against crappy opponents in the season’s first four weeks.  These teams are relatively even, still crappy, and in theory, should give three at home.  However, the Lions are much hungrier for a win as the Rams have won two straight.  I’m not about to give the Rams a three game win streak and a road W.  Gulp…I’ll lay the points and take the Lions.

Chicago +3 over CAROLINA

Really Vegas?  Yes, Jay Cutler is hurt, but do we really think that he makes a 5.5 point difference?  This game was originally listed at Chicago -2.5 and has steadily shifted in Carolina’s favor since the announcement that Jay Cutler will miss the game with his concussion.  Quite simply, the Bears are overrated but the Panthers are flat out bad.  The Bears have the significantly better defense and will find a way to force Jimmy Clausen into some turnovers.   While the Panthers may be hungry to get their first win, don’t underestimate the Bears desire to bounce back from an embarrassing defeat on national TV.  Take the points and if available, the over on shots of blank stares from Lovie Smith after his team fails on stupid 4th and 1 calls.

New Orleans -6.5 over ARIZONA

This line surprisingly held steady at NO -6.5 all week, but I’d be shocked if it isn’t at least 7 by kickoff.  New Orleans hasn’t looked good and they have heard all about it this week.  The Cardinals have been terrible, but they have a master plan: insert middle round pick, rookie Max Hall into the lineup.  Sure, throwing woefully unprepared rookie quarterbacks into the mix against angry defending Super Bowl champions sounds like a bad idea, but…well, I can think of no counter argument here.  Take the Saints and watch them roll.

Green Bay -2.5 over WASHINGTON

I am a very strong believer in two rules of betting on the team you love: 1) Just don’t do it, you care too much as it is and are too fully invested.  2) If you do, bet against them.  If you bet on them and they lose, the sting will be horrible.  Well, this week I’m (idiotically) breaking my own rules.  As I stated earlier, I have really trained myself this year to look at motivation in NFL games and the gambler in me sees the Packers written all over this game.  First, the Redskins are coming off of a huge, emotional win in Donovan McNabb’s return to Philly and natural human instinct should be to let down a bit.  Next, looking over the stats, it is easy to see that Washington just isn’t as good as their 2-2 would indicate.  Their success thus far seems to be more of a statistical anomaly than any actual improvement.  Next, the Packers barely escaped the Lions the week after a tough Monday night loss, but now have a full week to prepare while hearing how overrated they are.  With all of that said, for some reason, everybody I talk to or read seems to be on the Skins in this one.  As a gambler, I love that everything seems to point towards the Packers and nobody sees it.  So I’m breaking my own rules, as an insane, care too much to be healthy Packer fan, I am raising the stakes on tomorrow’s game by betting on my team.  Ultimately, I’ve added another goal to my Packer Sunday: don’t let my head explode.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 34-27-0 (.557)

All Time on ADPTP: 91-88-2 (.508)

Last Post: 5-7 (.417) - Pending Hawaii +10.5

This is a bad idea.  For the first time this year, I am going to post NFL 55 Percenters with those hope of finding some winners.  I have been pounding college football, posting ten plus picks on a regular basis and having a good deal of success.  The NFL though, is a different animal.  Picking games feels a lot like throwing darts and hoping you hit, because games are wildly unpredictable.  Everybody is talented and a team can look like a Super Bowl contender one week, only to drop a home game to a doormat the next.  Despite those difficulties, I feel like I am beginning to get a feel for this year’s version of the NFL and can avoid the landmines with teams that cannot be trusted.

In betting the NFL, the key is to find the landmines in each week’s schedule.  When I do find those games, I’ll treat it like a game of Minesweeper.  I won’t bet the other way, instead I’ll tag those games as stay aways.  I sincerely apologize for that terrible reference, but it seems relevant to how we should evaluate the weekly NFL schedule.

This week has a perfect example of two potential landmines.  First, the Green Bay Packers are 14 point favorites against a Detroit team that is missing their starting quarterback and their star rookie running back, Jahvid Best, will play with an injured ligament in his foot.  That game is at Lambeau, where the Lions haven’t won in seemingly forever.  Second, the Chicago Bears go on the road against a struggling Giants team that looked completely lost against the Titans last week.  The Bears, despite a strong 3-0 start, are getting 3.5 points in a line that seems strangely off at first glance.  While both of these games appear to be good bets, I see them as potential landmines.  The Packers and Bears are coming off a hard fought, divisional rivalry game on Monday Night, forcing a short week of recuperation and preparation.  For me, despite two seemingly likable lines, I am putting the red flag on these two contests.

With my method for eliminating games given, let’s get to the good stuff…to the picks!

NFL Picks

San Francisco/ATLANTA OVER 42.5

Typically, I shy away from most over/under’s on the pro level because they are so mathematically derived.  Against relatively level competition across the league, average point totals and yardage can give Vegas a great gauge on where a game’s final total should end up.  Despite that, I feel that this game comes in a touch low.  The Falcons have proven to be a powerful offensive team, with only their tough opening day matchup in Pittsburgh driving their numbers down.  San Francisco has not been great offensively, but fired their offensive coordinator this week, promising to open the game up to their playmakers more.  While that doesn’t necessarily mean a faster pace or more points, I expect them to move the ball relatively effectively in this game.  In the dome weather won’t be a factor and I see this game getting into the 20’s on both sides of the ball.

Denver +6.5 over TENNESSEE

I’ll be honest, picking this one surprises me.  The more I look at the numbers, the more two cases are made.  First, Denver has played better than their 1-2 record shows and may be a sleeper at this point in the AFC West.  Second, Tennessee has not been very impressive, including their thought-to-be great running game.  Chris Johnson is averaging only 4.0 yards per carry, far below where he was a year ago.  While the Broncos haven’t played any elite running teams to this point, they have done a great job at stopping the run.  I don’t see any major warning signs on Denver’s side going into Sunday and love that public opinion seems to be strongly on the Titans’ side.  I’m going to hold off until kick off to actually make this bet and hope that it gets to +7.  I recommend doing the same, but I will bet it at +6.5 at kickoff if it hasn’t changed.

Carolina +13 over NEW ORLEANS

Thirteen is a lot of points for a team to be giving that is living off of their previous year’s reputation.  True, the Saints have played the Vikings, 49ers, and Falcons, which sounds like a difficult schedule until you remember that the Vikings and Niners haven’t played anywhere near their expectations.  Quite simply, the Saints haven’t been dominating anybody and have struggled to stop the run.  While Carolina hasn’t gotten their run game going, desperation, along with HGH, is always a strong drug in the NFL.  Despite a loss last week, I can’t imagine the Saints are panicked or feel any real sense of desperation just yet.  The Panthers meanwhile have been getting pounded from all angles in the press and have to be hungry to get their first win, especially against last year’s Super Bowl champs.  I like when the numbers and motivation both point the same way.  Go against the grain and take the points.

Baltimore +2.5 over PITTSBURGH

On first glance, I really wanted to stay away from this game.  I forced myself to look a little deeper, and other than wondering how Chaz Batch’s helmet is so insanely tight, the main thing I took was that the Ravens will win this game.  The Ravens have not been overly impressive, but surprisingly despite their 3-0 record, the Steelers haven’t dominated games either.  Beyond that, the Steelers are sitting at 3-0 and are probably feeling pretty good about themselves.  The Ravens are coming off of a close win over the Browns and if I know Ray Lewis, he will have this team ready to play against a weak offense without Big Ben.  Give me Baltimore on the road getting a couple of points.

Indianapolis -7 over JACKSONVILLE

When you listen to the podcast you will hear my rant about how I do not understand this line.  I understand that Indy has historically allowed their game at Jacksonville to stay close, but history isn’t always the best predictor of future results.  The Jags have been terrible across the field to this point and the Colts are elite until it is proven otherwise.  Colts easily.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 26-18-0 (.591)

All Time on ADPTP: 83-79-2 (.512)

Last Post: 7-4 (.636)

Note: NFL Week 4 Preview Podcast will go up Saturday evening and I will try to add some NFL 55 Percenters this week, meaning that my strong last two weeks of NFL betting will come to a screeching halt.

For college football fans, this week, the real season begins.  The schedule is peppered with fantastic games.  The early slate isn’t packed, but gives us Miami-Clemson and the number two team in the country, The Ohio State Buckeyes kicking off their Big Ten schedule at Illinois.  The afternoon brings a batch of very good games, #11 Wisconsin at #24 Michigan St, Virginia Tech at surprising #23 North Carolina St, and a genuine rivalry as the Red River Shootout is renewed between Texas and Oklahoma.

The real action begins at 8 PM Eastern.  Look at these games, all occurring simultaneously: Washington at #18 USC, with the Trojans attempting to avenge their upset loss a year ago; Notre Dame at Boston College, I’m sorry, why is this relevant?; #9 Stanford at #4 Oregon, in a game that could legitimately determine the regular season Pac-10 title; #22 Penn St at #17 Iowa, a great game but will certainly get neglected during this time slot; and the grand daddy of ‘em all, #7 Florida at #1 Alabama.  Good God that is a slew of games!  Be sure to have your most talented, experience remote handler in charge.  A few wrong moves and those 3 hours could be a bumpy ride.

There is only one thing that could make such a miraculous day of college football even more enjoyable.  Gambling is the obvious answer and this week’s 55 Percenters will try to make you some money on college football Saturday.  Last week’s edition was my poorest performance of the year, coming in at 5-6, but the season record is still strong.  Let’s go get some winners.

College Football Picks

Temple/ARMY OVER 40.5

This opened at 42 and I liked it then, to lock in now at 40.5 makes me feel very good.  I understand that these two teams aren’t offensive juggernauts, but 41 points in a college game is not very many.  I expect this one to be a close game, I will likely add Army +5 to my actual bets, and think we push 50 for a final total.

Ohio St -17 over ILLINOIS

I hate to say it, but this is my favorite bet of the weekend.  While I’d rather go Ohio Bobcat style and tear the Buckeyes down, to be honest, they would be my National Champion pick as of today.  Inept Ron Zook and company have come out slow this year in Illinois, and despite a victory, they were outgained by the not-so-mighty Northern Illinois Huskies last time out.  I think they will struggle to score against the Buckeyes, which may leave some of you asking why I don’t play the under.  Quite simply, I think this is one of the most explosive offensive teams Ohio State has ever had.  Sweater Vest led teams have called off the dogs in the mid 30’s in previous seasons against Big Ten opponents, but I think that may break some of those clock draining plays for touchdowns this year.  Expect to see some 40’s and 50’s hung on the board by the Buckeyes this year in the Big Ten.  I love the Buckeyes big on Saturday.

Tcu/COLORADO ST. OVER 53.5

 While mid-50’s is a decent amount of points for a blowout, I fully expect TCU to put up 42+ on their own.  Add in that their defense has only been pretty good, allowing 7 and 10 even to Tennessee Tech and Baylor, and we should make this number fairly easily.

Navy +10 over AIR FORCE

Air Force has been very good this year and unquestionably has the better team to go with home field advantage in this one.  However, this is a rivalry game and one that Navy has won 7 straight dating back to 2002 at that.  Navy certainly isn’t a push over and call me crazy, but I like getting a double digit dog in a rivalry game when that team has won 7 straight in the series.  Hopefully there are seamen everywhere in this one!

MICHIGAN ST. +2 over Wisconsin

Call me an anti-homer or a reverse jinxer or whatever you’d like here.  Pretty simply, when I went over this game I had it as Michigan St. -2.5, meaning Wisconsin is a slightly better team and the Spartans had homefield.  While this 4.5 point swing isn’t the greatest, -2.5 and +2 are negligibly different, the swing definitely adds value to this play.  I would recommend waiting until Saturday and if you can get Michigan State at +110 or better on the money line, run with it as this game is realistically a coin flip.  This is one rare time where I want to lose a 55 Percenter.

NORTH CAROLINA ST. +4 over Virginia Tech

I’m hesitant to take this one, especially after the Hokies covered for me as my favorite pick of the week last Saturday.  NC State came through for me +8.5 against Georgia Tech as well, winning the game outright and comfortably so at that.  As I said in that write up, I still don’t completely trust Russell Wilson, but this team has played well and is still being undervalued.  I’m going to take the points with a home dog and hope that the Bad Hokies show up.

Texas/Oklahoma OVER 45

Part of me thinks that last year’s 16-13 slugfest between these two teams is impacting this number more than it should.  Prior to that low scoring battle, the previous four games went for 80, 38, 49, and 80.  While this Texas team is definitely defensively talented and offensively mediocre, Oklahoma fits the mold of those true Red River Shootouts.  They can score at will but also struggle to stop most offenses.  Take the over here.

Duke/MARYLAND UNDER 62.5

A ton of points and two teams that don’t really warrant it.  Duke has played in some high scoring games, but Maryland is a much different team than the Dukies have seen.  While I just argued against using the previous year’s game too strongly in Texas/Oklahoma, I’m going to do just that here.   Last year, these two teams played to a 17-13 final and the total yards didn’t tell a different story.  The key here is that the current over/under is a whopping 32.5 points above last year’s game.  Neither team plays that fast paced and there will be at least a few defensive stops in this one.  Under is definitely the play.

Washington +10 over USC

I am not making this play based upon the Huskies upset win a year ago, instead I am basing it primarily on USC’s play this season.  I don’t trust this current Trojans squad to beat much of anybody by more than 10 as they struggled to do so against lower quality teams like Hawaii and Minnesota.  Granted they’ll be better at home, but Washington will be ready to kick off Pac-10 play.  I expect a close game and if the Trojans to grab a nice lead, I trust Jake Locker to put some garbage time points on the board for a cheap cover.

OREGON -7 over Stanford

This selection probably shocks some people a week after I wrote glowingly about how the Cardinal is one of the best teams in the country, and they backed me up with a strong win at Notre Dame.  Consider this a play on the Ducks, who are absolutely lights out in Eugene.  Stanford will struggle to stop Oregon’s speedy offense and I think that Stanford’s early season performance has shrunk this line further than it should of.  Oregon should probably be favored -7 or higher against anybody at home and I don’t quite put Stanford in the tier that can take this game to the wire.  Lay the 7 points and watch this game open up a little in the 2nd half.

Nevada -20.5 over UNLV

I am going to continue to make my way to the bank by doing two things: betting on Nevada, the best non-BCS team that nobody talks about, and betting against UNLV, who is truly terrible.  Nevada isn’t satisfied until at least 50 is on the board and there is no possible way that the Rebels can hang 30.  Wolf Pack big.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 19-14-0 (.576)

All Time on ADPTP: 76-75-2 (.503)

Last Post: 5-6 (.455)

As many of you have heard on our podcast, Jake and I stand on opposite ends of the BCS spectrum.  I strongly believe that a playoff is the right answer to find the National Champion, Jake has no qualms with the system as it is currently constructed.  My primary argument is the one that is most common.  I believe the current system eliminates almost every Division 1 team from being a legitimate championship contender before the first kickoff even happens.  It makes one loss essentially a season ender, even if a different BCS Bowl could still be at the end of the rainbow.  Many will say that my problem with one loss meaning everything is actually the beauty of college football.  Every game is your season, something that no other sport can boast.

I can’t argue that point, each individual college football game is more important than any other sport’s individual games.  However, this does not lead to the “great” football that everyone claims it does.  Here is the list of opponents of Big Ten teams this week: Central Michigan, Northern Colorado, Bowling Green, Austin Peay, Ball State, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Temple, Akron, and Northern Illinois.  And every single one of those games will be played in the Big Ten team’s stadium.  Do you know what makes it even worse?  I can’t argue with the decisions that the Athletic Directors make and that is why ADs in every conference come to the same conclusion.  If the goal is to lose zero games, the answer is to make your schedule as easy as possible.

The result of the system is not great non-conference football, it is trying to avoid great non-conference football.  I’m not going to say that a playoff would necessarily answer this problem entirely, but I think if teams knew they could lose to a good team and still have a chance at a National Championship, we would be given more great games in the non-conference schedule.

Aside from the slew of terrible Big Ten games this week, many conferences step into full blown conference play this weekend.  The 55 Percenters are hot to begin the year, going 5-4 in Week 1 and firing a smoking hot 9-4 in Week 2.  Hopefully these picks keep the roll going.  To the picks!

College Football Picks

NC State +8.5 over GEORGIA TECH

First of all, this Georgia Tech team is not as good as they were a year ago and their play to this point has proven that.  However, even when they were winning a ton of games last year, they were close games.  NC St is not an overly impressive 3-0, and I still don’t trust Russell Wilson entirely at quarterback, but I think this game is close until the end.  Take the points here.

Air Force -13.5 over WYOMING & AF/WYOMING UNDER 49.5

There are a few bets like this, where I locked the line earlier in the week and they may have shifted slightly.  My website now lists this game at -14 and 50.5.  I love Air Force here as they have been running the ball over their competition and Wyoming currently ranks a lowly 120th in rushing defense.  I also expect Air Force to shut down the Wyoming offense, which should lead to an under as well.  Call me crazy, but Wyoming’s choice of piss and shit colored uniforms doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Toledo/PURDUE UNDER 50

I know, nobody cares.  I agree.  But Purdue is a grind it out team who only managed 31 and 24 points against equally poor teams in Western Illinois and Ball State.  I see a horrible game to watch, a slugfest with a 24-14 type final score.

Virginia Tech -4 over BOSTON COLLEGE

This may be my favorite bet of the week.  VTech did lose to Boise and James Madison and their star running back Ryan Williams won’t be playing on Saturday, I know all of this.  But they are still a solid team and have senior Tyrod Taylor to lead the offense.  Meanwhile, BC is 2-0 over Weber State and Kent St, and even those wins weren’t very convincing.  This line screams value as I think many have written off Virginia Tech simply because they lost a tough game and then were emotionally flat the next week.  Beamer will have them up for the start of Big East play and Boston College is not a good team.  I like the Hokies big on Saturday.

Central Michigan/NORTHWESTERN UNDER 49.5

That’s right, it’s the always popular Big Ten under week!  There is nothing like watching mediocre Big Ten teams battle terrible non-conference opponents and cheering for no scoring to happen.  That’s livin’ brother.  I think this is a smidge high, I thought it should be in the 45 range and some websites are up in to 50.5 area now.  I think these teams’ performances against the lesser teams on their schedules have inflated this number a little more than they should have.

TENNESSEE -13.5 over Uab

Other than exciting Big Ten unders, my other theme this week is redemption for major programs that have started slowly.  Tennessee lost to Oregon and Florida, but I think those losses are being viewed more strongly because they were early season matchups.  The Vols are at home and get a chance for a little payback when UAB strolls into town.  UAB’s defense has been getting gashed left and right without playing a team with the overall talent level of Tennessee.  Send them on the road against a team hungry for a big win and I think this one gets Sam Cassell Ugly.

Oregon -11.5 over ARIZONA ST

Oregon has been abjectly destroying every team in their path and the Sun Devils should be no different.  Coming off an emotional loss at Wisconsin, Arizona St. will see the exact opposite of what they saw in Madison, a speed team that will attack on the edges.  Arizona St. is probably a little overvalued after their performance against the Badgers, who have always struggled against spread it out offenses.  This one might stay close for a half, but Oregon’s athletes open it up in the second half.

Southern Miss -4 over LOUISIANA TECH

Another dandy of a game to watch and to be perfectly honest, this wasn’t even my pick.  A trusted friend has seen Southern Miss and thinks that this line is significantly off from where it should be.  This is a game you bet and periodically check the score, even I don’t recommend subjecting yourself to this one.

FLORIDA -14 over Kentucky

The Gators fits into the “redemption” theme, even though Florida hasn’t technically lost a game.  They have taken a beating nationally though for their unimpressive victories, which for this program, is enough to feel like a loss.  A return to The Swamp against a team that hasn’t played decent competition yet seems like the right place for their first blowout of the season.  I think they cover, but if they don’t, I at least find comfort in knowing that Urban Meyer will bitch and complain, finding a way to make it the media or an agent’s fault.  Really, it’s a lot like me when I make a stupid bet.

Stanford -4.5 over NOTRE DAME

Umm, excuse me?  Maybe the rest of the country hasn’t caught on yet, but I certainly did when I watched Stanford absolute house my final bet last week, squeaking by Wake Forest (who I bet +17) by the measly score of 68-24.  The Tree are physical, have one of the best quarterbacks in Andrew Luck, and quite simply, are one of the best teams in the country right now.  Notre Dame is decent, but they aren’t ready for a Stanford team that will knock them around The House That Rockne Built.   Stanford comfortably is the pick.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 14-8-0 (.636)

All Time on ADPTP: 71-69-2 (.507)

Last Post: 9-4 (.692)

Football is back baby!  We had some college games last weekend to wet our appetites, and this weekend the glory of football hits us hard.  Last night, the Vikings and Saints kicked off the NFL season, even if it was a bit of a lackluster opener.  Saturday, we get our first real taste of college football as great games litter the schedule.  Sunday, the NFL season finally kicks into full gear with a full slate of games.  Of course with the NFL on Sunday, fantasy football season finally begins.  It doesn’t even end there, as we have a pair on Monday night games as a capper to the weekend.  The best part?  We get to do it all again next week.

For those of you newer to the blog, Jake and I began ADPTP last year during football season.  As our domain name and description of the website says, gambling is one of the key building blocks of Al Davis Plus the Points.  We both pick games against the spread and keep track of our records along the way.  The summer is a down time for betting picks, as we only have baseball, not exactly an exciting sport for betting.  Football is clearly the best gambling sport around (secretly one of the reasons for its massive popularity) and we usually post betting picks pretty regularly during the season.

Today I will kick off my 55 Percenters for the 2010-2011 season with my favorite college bets for the week.  My 55 Percenters have the goal of beating a standard sportsbook, where bets are -110.  -110 means that you have to bet $110 to win $100.  That extra 10% is how the sportsbook make so much money and is typically referred to as juice or vig.  In order to break even with all -110 bets, you would have to correctly hit 52.5% of your bets.  So to make some money, I set 55% as the bar for my bets.  After a hot start on ADPTP, I really struggled down the stretch last year.  In this space, I will give my year to date record and my all-time record, which I hope to get back up to 55% this year.  Enough of this wasted space…to the picks!

College Football Picks

West Virginia -13 over MARSHALL

This is a rare Friday game, so if you want to join me here, you have to get in today.  I like this West Virginia team with 4 offensive lineman returning and senior Noel Devine in the backfield.  Devine is a stud and I don’t think that this mediocre Marshall team can stop the Mountaineers offense.  Granted, Marshall played a very good offensive team in Ohio St last week, but they allowed a whopping 6.8 yards per carry in their opener.  I see the team of brothers (literally) from West Virginia winning easily tonight and will lay the thirteen.

Georgia Tech -14 over KANSAS

For me, this is one of the easiest picks of the weekend.  Georgia Tech has mastered the option offense and should be able to pound Kansas into submission.  Kansas lost a 6-3 thriller to North Dakota St in Week 1, so I’m not extremely concerned that they will match the Georgia Tech offense score for score.  Even on the road, the Yellow Jackets roll.

Michigan +3.5 over NOTRE DAME

The game between media darlings can be properly fawned over as both teams come in 1-0.  Michigan’s offense looked fantastic in Week 1 against UConn, as Denard Robinson showed why he won the starting quarterback job.  I don’t think he’ll look that great throwing the ball all season, but he certainly proved that he isn’t a run only option behind center.  Notre Dame isn’t a terrible team and I do expect this to be a pretty close game, but I’ll gladly take Michigan getting over a field goal.

Florida St. +7.5 over OKLAHOMA

I bet this game on Wednesday and got in at +7.5.  My website is now down to a 7 point line, but I’m guessing you can still find it at 7.5 somewhere.  Oklahoma is a good team, but is not the Oklahoma that went to multiple BCS bowls a few years ago.  Landry Jones should be better this year at QB, after being decent filling in for Sam Bradford as a freshman last year.  The big worry is in the secondary, where Oklahoma is dangerously thin.  That secondary is paired against a Florida St. team that is highlighted by senior quarterback Christian Ponder and an offensive line that returns all 5 starters from a year ago.  Despite playing in Norman, I give Florida St. a reasonable chance to win this game outright, much less cover a touchdown plus spread.  Don’t bet on past Sooner success, take the ‘Noles.

 Miami/OHIO STATE OVER 46

This is another line that has moved since I bet it, from 46, to 46.5, and now rests at 47.  I still highly recommend betting this one at 47.  These are two powerful offenses led by Jacory Harris and Terrelle Pryor.  I expect both teams to move the ball successfully and was expecting to see an over/under settled in the low 50’s.  Bet the over, at least you’ll have something to root for in a game between two of the most unlikable teams on the college football horizon.

Brigham Young +1 over AIR FORCE

Another one of my favorites this week as the Mormons are somehow getting points against Air Force.  In last year’s battle, BYU won by 18 points and outgained AF by almost 200 yards.  Granted, that was in the heart of Mormon country and this year it is in the land of planes, but I don’t expect a drastically different result.  BYU still has superior players and coaches, which for me, is a good enough reason to pick them to win.  Load up on the Cougars and count your winnings.

ALABAMA -12 over Penn St & ALABAMA/Penn St UNDER 44

Two bets for you when the Nittany Lions travel to Tuscaloosa.  Penn St is starting a freshman quarterback in the heart of college football country, the only place on earth where wearing a fedora doesn’t automatically make you a douche.  Alabama’s defense may not be as good as last year’s version, but I see the Nittany Lion offense struggling like Lou Holtz trying to form a coherent sentence.  This game screams 24-6 kind of game at me, which leads to both of these bets.

Stanford -6 over UCLA

This is my final college pick of the week and is another one of the race for my favorite of the week.  This UCLA team has some talent, but should not be able to play with Andrew Luck and this Stanford team.  Perhaps it is the loss of Toby Gerhart, but I feel like this Stanford team is undervalued right now.  UCLA seems to be on the opposite end as they continue to get respect, despite the horrendous play of quarterback Kevin Prince.  Lay the six in this one.

55 Percenters

2010 - 2011 Season Record: 0-0-0 (.000)

All Time on ADPTP: 57-61-2 (.483)

Last Post: 0-0 (.000)

As a guy that I have enjoyed having on fantasy teams over the last few years, I hate to rip a phenomenal baseball player like Hanley Ramirez.  He puts up incredible numbers and has helped the Marlins slowly improve under Fredi Gonzalez.  I also hate joining the rank and file of sportswriters with a custard-filled donut in one hand, shaking a clenched fist admonishing Ramirez for not hustling as I sit at my desk debating if I have the energy to type up a few pointless baseball picks.

For those of you not familiar with what I am about to get into, I recommend you go watch the clip: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100517&content_id=10121486&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb.  Basically, Hanley dogged it big time after literally booting a fly ball and claimed that his banged up shin was the culprit.  Gonzalez yanked him from the game, Hanley responded by bashing Fredi through the media and Fredi then sat Hanley again on Tuesday.

The video cannot be clearer: Hanley’s shin was absolutely not the reason he wasn’t running hard.  He was simply being petulant over a bad defensive play and for whatever reason, didn’t feel like playing baseball that night.  As a sports fan, yes this bothers me.  I don’t like to see a guy clearly putting forth inexcusable effort, especially when he should be smart enough to know that the replay will be shown on highlight shows for the next 24 hours.  But if it ended there, you certainly wouldn’t be reading about it here.  I’m not the type to get worked up over one hiccup in a game where the season is 162 games, even though I realize the importance of each game.

Where I really got bothered was when Hanley felt compelled to openly throttle Fredi Gonzalez through the media and claim that his teammates dog it in a similar fashion and aren’t expected to apologize.  Forget the fact that I haven’t seen anybody in baseball dog it like that on a play where runners are rounding the bases, much less on his team.  What bothers me is the absolute sense of entitlement he clearly has over the Marlins team because he is blessed to be one of the best baseball players on the planet.  We aren’t talking about a 20 year old rookie here, we are talking about a 26 year old currently in his 5th big league season.  This is a strong statement, but one that I feel extremely confident in: Hanley Ramirez will never be on a team that wins the World Series.  Athletes with this attitude, one of self over team and complete disregard for anybody else’s warranted opinions, are guys that mysteriously always find themselves putting up their monstrous numbers on teams that fall short.  To me, Hanley cemented himself as a player who will put out enough effort to put up big numbers, get his big paycheck, and win some big games, but not the effort required to grind out the wins that get titles.  Maybe this is unfair, but forget the apology that is surely coming today.  It will be forced out of him by his PR people, something that unfortunately, his gene for petulance cannot be.

MLB Picks - Fake Money Style

$100 to win $135 on Tampa Bay +135 over NY YANKEES

It’s not that I think Wade Davis is better than AJ Burnett or even that I think the Rays are better than the Yanks.  But I do think that both of those are fairly close and love getting the Rays as such good odds.  Throw in the Rays sparking 15-4 road record and I’ll take this one as a good value pick.

$280 to win $200 on PHILADELPHIA -140 over Chi Cubs

That’s right, my first double fake money bet on a baseball game.  That is the nice (and ultimately fatal) part of the fake money picks, I can weight specific picks more based upon confidence.  This line is insane to me, and not just because the Brewers are bigger favorites than the Phillies tonight.  Tom “I’m goony looking, can’t get people out, and just seem unlikable” Gorzelanny is on the hill for the Cubs and is guaranteed to get absolutely hammered by the Phillies tonight in the band box known as Citizen Bank Park.  I look for the Phils to go all “Drunk Guy That Vomits on Off-Duty Cop and His Daughters” (pictured) on the Cubs tonight, only without the sucker punch at the end of it.  And if you don’t know what I’m talking about, go through our Twitter archive to find the story or google “man vomits at Phillies game”, you won’t regret it.

$110 to win $100 on NY Mets/WASHINGTON Under 9 (-110)

This pick is based on two primary factors.  One, both of these offenses suck.  Two, despite being bad at throwing baseballs, R.A. Dickey is making his first career National League start and has not pitched in the majors this season.  Teams typically need some time to study a pitcher before they can hit him and I don’t think this Nats offense is one to thrive on talent alone.  Ten runs would be a lot for these two teams in a series, so I’ll take the under in a game.

$115 to win $100 on Cincinnati/ATLANTA Over 8.5 (-115)

Two struggling pitchers, with a combined 2-11 Won-Loss record do battle and the O/U strangely sits at just 8.5.  Maybe everybody is living in the past where Aaron Harang was once a good pitcher, but now he’s just an oafey-looking dude who throws average velocity fastballs without any movement.  I love this one.

$100 to win $115 on LA Angels/CHI WHITE SOX Under 8.5 (+115)

Gulp, that’s right, I’m taking the under in a game where Joe Saunders is toeing the rubber.  He has been pitching better as of late and the White Sox offense is mediocre at best, so I’m probably not as terrified as I goddamn well should be here.  John Danks on the other side has been lights out and even better (sun out? electricity out?) in the confines of U.S. Cellular Park.  Due to that, I love getting plus odds on the under here, so I’ll take a shot with Joe Saunders on my side.  In a related story, I’m thinking of giving gonorrhea a try.

$100 to win $105 on OAKLAND +105 over Detroit

You can always count on the Tigers being overvalued when Justin Verlander pitches.  He is a very good pitcher, undeniably, but is certainly not consistent enough to warrant the line adjustments that he gets.  Dallas Braden is pitching for Oakland, who are a very quiet 15-7 in home games this season.  Besides occasionally hitting triple digits on the radar gun and the gaudy strikeout totals, Braden and Verlander are probably closer than many want to admit in actual effectiveness.  I’ll gladly take the value of a 15-7 home team, getting better than even money at home with two fairly even pitchers going.  Needless to say, an 8 inning, 15 strikeout performance from Verlander is on tap for this evening.  Act accordingly.

55 Percenters

All Time on ADPTP: 57-61-2 (.483)

Last Post: 0-0 (.000)

Baseball Picks Fake Money Season Tally: + $200