posted by Jake

As Brandon aforementioned yesterday there was a scheduling conflict so there will not be a massive Preview Podcast… and by scheduling conflict he means that during the week he has panzy shit like class to go to while I had legit stuff going on like hitting up $15 all you can drink on a Tuesday night. Wow that sounds insanely sad when written out long form like that. Here, to make it less sad I will do the pregnancy reasoning – is it an alcohol problem… or an alcohol blessing?

Anywho, I will also write out my predictions that will be more correct than Brandon’s. That being said, because I am actually typing them out I am giving them the Al Davis Plus the Points ‘Kiss of Death’ guaranteeing that nothing written here will actually happen. Avoid these picks like the herp kiddies because unlike herpes, these picks are not a gift that keeps on giving. Brandon did the smart thing by posting first, so now it looks like I am blindly stealing from him. The truth is, this might be the first year since starting ADPTP that Brandon and I differ majorly on a lot of these predictions. Although I am just copy and pasting his format so the whole stealing thing is partly correct. I’m lazy, deal with it.

AFC East Champion - New England Patriots (13-3, #1 Seed)

What a perfect way to start out – picking the exact same as Brandon, not only in record but seed as well. This should not be too surprising though as most experts have the Pats as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Their young defense is one year older and had a few nice additions, one of which I would guess is Albert Haynesworth. I am curious to see which Albert ‘the Head Smasher’ Haynesworth shows up. The one who was in a contract year and recorded 8.5 sacks, or the one from every other season averaging 2.5. Plus, Tom Brady is just too goddamned good looking for them not to win… I mean let’s watch some UFC bro (damnit… that’s not any less gay).

AFC North – Baltimore Ravens (12-4, #2 Seed)

Brandon was quoted in his preview as calling Pittsburgh ‘elite’ and on the same level as the Patriots. I agree with him from a talent standpoint maybe even putting them above New England, but as far as who the division will go to? I believe that is the Baltimore Ravens. Rashard Mendenhall is not only everyone’s favorite 9/11 apologist but he also ran last year… a lot, and I expect to have a massive drop in production as the latest victim of the ‘300 touches curse’. Also their defense will be under a microscope. Any time the Steelers tackle someone remotely hard they run the risk of fine or even suspension. Brandon has brought up quite a bit how Baltimore is ‘missing a deep threat’, which they got this offseason in (Badger alum) Lee Evans. Not to mention the addition of Vonte Leach who is going to open up a lot of opportunities for Ray Rice. I also get the feeling like this defense, which is still solid, will have a sense of urgency to it due to their advanced age.

AFC South – Houston Texans (9-7, #4 Seed)

I feel weird predicting this. The Texans are always the ‘sexy pick’ and I am usually the one poo-pooing the idea of Houston winning the division. Well it looks like I just poo-pooed all over myself. Do I trust the Houston Texans? Of course not. But the fact is that even if Peyton Manning is entirely healthy the Colts still might not be the best team in the AFC South. Now subtract him for a few games completely and I think the Texans could gain a game or two advantage in the division (including a win Week 1). And if you look at the landscape of the Colts/Texans schedules and how average I think both those teams are that two game lead might just be too insurmountable for Indy.

AFC West - San Diego Chargers (10-6, #3 Seed)

I have to be honest, this was the hardest division for me to pick. I really do not think any of these teams are that good. The Chargers are the leader in the clubhouse talentwise so therefore they are going to win this division. Flawless logic, right? A Whale’s Vagina gets back both Antonio Gates who missed 6 games with injury, and Vincent Jackson who missed most of the season because he is an asshole. I think the Chiefs take a huge nose dive and the only real competition that the Chargers will get will be from the Oakland Raiders (both teams that I will cover shortly). The only concern I have about San Diego is the head coach. Norv Turner is a lot like Freddy Krueger, not only in appearance but Norv will also haunt your (deep playoff run) dreams.

AFC Wild Cards – Pittsburgh Steelers (#5), New York Jets (#6)

No one else from the South or West will make the playoffs so like Brandon I have to take the boring pick and go with the teams who finish second in the North and East.

AFC Surprise Team – Oakland Raiders

This may be the dumbest thing I have ever written on this site (Ed. Notes: a wildly untrue statement), but here goes – the Oakland Raiders will contend for the AFC West crown. They have a physical offensive line and (when Darren McFadden returns from his broken face) a great running game with DMC’s blinding speed and Michael Bush’s downhill power. The loss of Asomugha hurts but not as bad as people may think as they have good young corners who (although will not be Nhamdi) are ready to step into the role vacated by the wildly overrated, and now overpaid corner. I think the most important part of the Raiders’ success this season will be new head coach Hue Jackson. He is a guy who is loved in the locker room and I think the players believe in Jackson’s system and are ready to follow him to an AFC West crown… until Al Davis erroneously fires him.

AFC Stinker – Kansas City Chiefs

I have said a lot of things about Charlie Weis on this website. I have called him everything from a ‘fat worthless piece of shit’, or ‘the fattest pile of human garbage I have ever seen wear a headset’, to even ‘Jabba the Hutt’s more disgustingly unfuckable cousin’. I may have gone too far with some of those, so I will give my honest opinion of him. Charlie Weis is a bad head coach who only got the Notre Dame job because Bill Belichick is a genius and an inherently racist program fired a good coach and Weis could only win when it was with Ty Willingham’s players. But that’s really only my opinion of him as a head coach. As a coordinator wooowee can he light up the scoreboard. Weis’ prowess as a coordinator may be the only reason Kansas City dominated last year. Alas, Weis is no longer with KC, which is exactly why I think the Chiefs fall flat this season. I could also add that I do not trust Cassel, or Dwayne Bowe to care for 16 games, then add in they lost Tony Moeaki for the season (which regardless of your talent evaluation of the young Tight End, he was still Cassel’s favorite target and safety blanket). The only redeeming qualities of this team are going to be Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, two players I have a raging clue for. I think Berry may be one of the best defensive players in the game right now and Charles has a ‘Chris Johnson’ type season in him. Unfortunately judging by the way the Chiefs looked in the preseason, it won’t be the 2011 campaign.

AFC Favorite of Sarah the girl sitting next to me – Miami Dolphins

Like many fans in Miami Sarah is predicting a bad year for Chad Henne, although in slightly different fashions. Where most Dolphins fans expect him to be inept on the field, Sarah is predicting Henne (or, ‘the quarterback’ as she referred to him) might not even play much because at some point early in the 2011 season she sees a broken leg for Chad. Sarah believes that the backup will shine (**Jazz Hands**) in the new starting role leading the Dolphins to glory. But not so fast Matt Moore, she suspects that it may not be the second string backup who comes out on top, with possibly another injury making the third string quarterback the hero in Miami. (Ed. Note: Miami is only carrying 2 quarterbacks, so if both go down the job goes to practice squad rookie from the University of Delaware (Go Blue Hens!) Pat Devlin

NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, #3 Seed

What can be said about Michael Vick that hasn’t already been written on the wall of a prison shower? Vick was unbelievable last season, putting up numbers that trumped even his best days in Atlanta. The problem is, his Atlanta years were wildly ‘meh’. Boasting a poor passer rating, turnover ratio, and constantly plagued by injury Michael Vick was only truly good for the Falcons if it was Madden 2004… in which case he was unfucking stoppable. But last year was a renaissance for Vick defying what many of us thought could exist as a mobile NFL quarterback. The Eagles are hoping that it was not a ‘one year  wonder’ type season as they invest $100 million in Vick’s 30-year old legs (and prolapsing rectum… too gross for a prison joke?) for the next 6-years. They also threw quite a bit of money at Nhamdi Asomugha and Cullen Jenkins in hopes of shoring up their defense. I will touch on the Eagles a little bit later in this preview, but for now – rest assured that they stand to be one of the premiere teams in the NFC.

NFC North - Green Bay Packers (12-4, #2 Seed)

Call me a homer, or just call me smart. I will say it, as long as there is not a Motaba like virus that strikes the city of Green Bay the Packers have zero competition in this division. The Bears had their typical ex-President year last season (you know, the ex-President shows up on Leno or writes a book every five or six years just so the public remembers he is still alive) and I think the public may be a little too high on the Lions. I guess the Vikings could be a threat, but they are missing a receiving core and no matter how many goats Jared Allen tries to impregnate that defense is not getting any younger. I wrote about it on the site earlier, the Ted Thompson signed the guys they needed to and the Packers are young, talented and poised to make another deep playoff run.

NFC South – Atlanta Falcons (13-3, #1 Seed)

Where Brandon is wildly confident in the New Orleans Saints, I feel the exact same way about the Atlanta Falcons. Matty Ice and the rest of his birds of prey brethren were nearly unbeatable in the Dirty Dirty last season (until the playoffs… schwing), I do not expect that to change. Add in Julio Jones and Ray Edwards and I think the Falcons could honestly make the case that they are the best team in the NFC.

NFC West - St. Louis Rams (9-7, #4 Seed)

Who ever wins this division will, for the second year in a row, be winning the award for ‘Least Diseased Prostitute’. The only reasons I am picking the Rams is because I believe they have the best future, most talented quarterback, and I really can not see any of the other teams finishing above .500. St. Louis seem to be the consensus pick, but I have an anonymous source (ok, it’s AJ Wheeler) close to the situation/person/thing who says the Rams could still be a year or two away. A lot like Leslie Easterbook as Sgt. Debbie Callahan in Police Academy. Sure she was tough and looked good but was really nothing more than PG-13 eye candy for the series with only a minimal possibility of the ‘Cheap 80’s Nude Scene’. But a few years from St. Louis will get the wet t-shirt scene involving (freshly promoted) Lt. Callahan in Police Academy 3: Back in Training in which the Rams and their fans finally get what they have all been waiting for.

NFC Wild Cards – New Orleans Saints (#5), Dallas Cowboys (#6)

Where Brandon said he, ‘needed to do something weird’ for his Wild Card teams, I once again am going chalk. It really is the same scenario as the AFC, other than the Buccaneers (who I still think may be a year or two away), I do not foresee any other teams contending. I may be convinced the Giants and Cowboys could switch, regardless I would be willing to be the Wild Card teams in the NFC will comes from the East and South.

NFC Surprise Team – Philadelphia Eagles

I realize I picked the Eagles to win the NFC East, but hear me out. I put ‘surprise’ because I do not think there will be a middle road with this team. Either we will be taken aback by how truly great this team is, or we will be shocked at how spectacularly mediocre they are. I would actually be willing to bet on the latter rather than the former. Many NFL pundits have already crowned them Super Bowl Champions where I look at the Eagles a different way. I look at them as a team with a quarterback who has had trouble with turnovers and health in the past and no one really to back him up. I also look at them as a team who struggled against the run last year and really did nothing to improve that. Jenkins is a pass rusher (when healthy) and they are openly shopping around for a new starting Middle Linebacker (sorry Casey Matthews).

NFC Stinker – Detroit Lions

Just like the Eagles as a ‘surprise’ I am also going a different route with ‘stinker’. Do I think the Lions finish 4-12? No. Do I think they finish around 7-9 wins? Yes. The reason I put this as ‘stinker’ then is because I am seeing too many people over confident in this Lions team. Don’t get me wrong, I love what they did in the offseason but one Eric Wright signing does not a defensive secondary make. I also worry about the health of their offense. Let’s call a spade a spade here, they have an atrocious offensive line and a quarterback/running back tandem that have not exactly been known as pillars of health. If Stafford and Jahvid Best stay healthy this team has a real shot at 10 wins, the problem is both of them won’t. Sorry Detroit, at least you have the Tigers.

NFC Favorite of Sarah the girl sitting next to me – Dallas Cowboys

Jerry Jones would be happy if Sarah’s prediction came true and his Cowboys were playing in the Super Bowl against the Miami Dolphins. She offered quite a bit less ‘Crystal Ball’ reasoning on her NFC pick than for her AFC favorite simply saying, ‘the Cowboys just came to mind’. She then went on to describe how she really does not like the San Francisco 49ers, and her other favorite team in the NFC is probably the Philadelphia Eagles. Sarah likes the Eagles because, ‘I think Hank Baskett used to play for them and he has the cutest little baby with Kendra’. See, this is the kind of ‘inside baseball’ analysis you can’t get from other sites. When asked who wins the Super Bowl Sarah was to the point claiming, ‘probably the Cowboys because the Dolphin… I don’t think, are very good, right?’

Gun to the Head Playoff Bracket

AFC Wild Card Round

#3 Chargers over #6 Jets, #5 Steelers over #4 Texans

AFC Divisional Round

#1 Patriots over #5 Steelers, #2 Ravens over #3 Chargers

AFC Championship

#1 Patriots over #2 Ravens

NFC Wild Card Round

#3 Eagles over #6 Cowboys, #5 Saints over #4 Rams

NFC Divisional Round

#1 Falcons over #5 Saints, #2 Packers over #3 Eagles

NFC Championship

#1 Falcons over #2 Packers

Super Bowl

Falcons over Patriots

I find it funny that a team like the Falcons, who a lot of NFL pundits were picking to win the whole shebang last year are now in a dogfight for the division with the Bucs and Saints. Granted the Saints got better and the Bucs got a year older but the Falcons added a lot of talent too. I know Brandon and I have a tendency to beep the horn of Tom Brady quite a bit on this website (a trend which I promise we will not change) but I don’t feel it for them this year, and came dangerously close to picking the Ravens losing the Super Bowl. The Falcons are well coached and practically unbeatable at home. The combination of Turner, Gonzo, Jones and White with Matty Ryan slinging will prove to be too much for Belichick and Welkah to overcome.