posted by Jake
I do not hate Corey Hart. I just don’t think he is good at baseball… no that’s not right. I just think he is fundamentally the worst player I have seen since Chuckie Carr… no that’s not it either. I just think we should expect more consistency and smart baseball play out of a man the Brewers are paying almost $27 million for the next three years. Where Corey can be the hottest hitter in the Senior Circuit for two weeks (like right now) he will then go into a slump that would baffle and confuse even the staunchest Hart supporter. It has gotten to the point where I no longer refer to a streaky hitter as ‘Jenkinsesque’ or ‘Pulling a Hardy’, I just say a player is ‘Tearin’ Up My Hart’ (that’s an ‘NSYNC reference, a little something for the ladies… and Siegs). But I can not be the only person who thinks this, right? Well the facebook and Twitter machine posts I get whenever Corey doesn’t strike out on a low and away breaking ball lead me to believe otherwise. To make sure people do not assume this is pure speculation or opinion, in this post I will show how his fundamentals, salary and even the advanced metrics make my case for me.
Before I move to his #Hartdamentals I am going to clear something up. One of the consensus arguments I get is, ‘how can you hate Corey when yer boi (ed. note: I may have changed the spelling there a bit) McGehee is doing so awful’. To which I agree, Casey is having a down year… in fact I wrote an entire article about me coming to terms with that (here) (and yes, that’s a post within a post… you just got Incepted BRAAAAAAAAAAAHHM). But it does not change the fact that a few nights ago, with a runner on second and less than two outs Casey grounded out to the second baseman twice, advancing the runner to third both times (and is also hitting .280 since the All Star Game). Later in that game Corey stepped up to the plate with runners on second and third with one out, and proceeded to ground out to the third baseman. I will give you the run scored, but with a bevy of different combination that would score that run Hart decided to hit it where nine time out of ten the runner can not advance. I genuinely feel bad saying it, but it has gotten to the point where I think Corey Hart fetishizes not advancing runners. According to Elias when Corey Hart records an out it is a ‘Productive Out’ 38% of the time. His defense has been suspect too routinely missing the cutoff man attempting to make an out, sending the ball up the line letting the tail runner move into scoring position or advancing to third. I realize a lot of people appreciate the gamble to get outs, but the truth is multiple run innings start when tailing runners are allowed to advance. I realize I am ragging on a guy who is third on the team in home runs, but he is getting paid far too much for it.
Maybe my biggest problem with Corey Hart is what the Brewers are paying him. But this contract is not the first time I have had this gripe. Before the current deal my hatred starting brewing (pun intended) after his 2008 campaign (Hart’s first All Star appearance). He took the Brewers to arbitration and won, which makes sense when you consider he was an All Star with 20 HR and 91 RBI. But on the other side of t
hat coin Corey struck out 109 times, had an OBP of .300 even which included an epic slide after the mid summer classic (a sub .200 September and .231 in the playoffs) as a cherry on the sundae. But naturally the Brewers did not learn their lesson as this past offseason agreed to overpay for mediocrity. Corey Hart is making nearly $7 million this year, which will be followed by $9 and $10 in 2012 and 2013 respectively. I have a distinct problem with this, he is right now the Brewers 4th highest earner (behind Prince, Greinke and Wolf). Let’s examine this contract further - do you know who Corey Hart is making more money than? Ryan Braun and Justin Upton. These are two of the premiere young corner outfielders in the game.
Corey Hart - $6.833 million - .359 OBP, 23 HR, 53 RBI
Ryan Braun - $4.287 million - .402 OBP, 25 HR, 89 RBI
Justin Upton - $4.458 millions - .373 OBP, 26 HR, 80 RBI
(not a major disparity… there was when I started the article a few weeks ago but Hart’s latest tear at the plate has narrowed the gap)
I realize before you argue with me, that these are insanely isolated examples. Which I would tend to agree with, they are isolated but it does not change that Corey is making nearly $2.5 million more than guys who are producing more than he is. The counter to this argument I get from people is usually that of, ‘well look at guys like Jayson Werth, Raúl Ibañez, Alfonso Soriano, and Torii Hunter they are all making more than Hart and producing less’. Yes, that is true. But those are all veteran contracts. The other two guys I brought up signed much more team friendly deals as their first major contract out of arbitration. That is how most businesses work, you get paid more the longer you have been at a position. Hart’s contract would be akin me getting a raise to make as much as a mid level executive for never really producing, yet not really falling behind right after I finished my first 90 days for insurance benefits. But it is not just the money, the advanced metrics also help.
Like I have mentioned before, I have never seen such a guttural reaction to criticism of an average player. As far as .270 hitters go there are few with such a fan base as Hart. But that is probably why I dislike him so much. Every stat available says he is average, yet people go fucking bananas when I bad mouth him. Although he is improving, he has a WAR of 14 even (sky rocketing nearly .9 wins alone in the last two weeks), so through his seven years of Major League service he is averaging 2 wins a season above an average replacement player. Where he really struggles in dWAR which is at 1.4 for his career, including this season (1.2) which is his first season defensively one win better than an average player.The UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) has not been impressed with Hart’s fielding either, finding him 4.2 runs below average in 2008 and 5.7 below in 2009. Despite his career year at the plate in 2010, Hart’s 2010 is his worst season yet in the field according to UZR at -8.1 runs. For a ‘speed’ guy Hart is boasting a career stolen base percentage at .658, including just .500 for the 2011 campaign. He is a career .274 hitter with RISP, which although not impressive, is at least consistent with his career BA but it drops .270 in that same situation with 2 outs and a putrid .248 with the bases loaded. I realize all these stats mean nothing to most people and Hart lovers could probably bring up another 100 to counter, I am stating the few that come into play most often and are most damning to him being average.
People might wonder why I am writing this now? Corey is currently 12 for his last 23 and has been just hot as a pistol since moving in to the leadoff spot. I am writing this now because what kind of person would I be if I waited until he slumped to post this? I am writing this to provide rational statistical reasons for my distrust of Corey Hart. I am writing this now because I am sick of hearing how great he is. One stretch of hitting the cover off the ball does not a stud outfielder make. I will say it once again, I do not hate Corey Hart.
What I do, is not trust him or think he is particularly outstanding at the sport of baseball. I believe him to be an average player. Yet, anytime I criticize him (like I do almost every Brewer) I get tweets and facebook messages from every third person as if I am nitpicking the swing of Ted Williams. People assume that any time Corey Hart hits a home run I react like Robert DeNiro in Goodfellas when he hears that Joe Pesci got whacked. That is simply not true. I enjoy it, because it usually means that the Brewers are succeeding as well. In fact, I would be willing to bet that I am savoring Hart’s current success more than the average fan… because I know it will not last. I know because ever since single A ball the knock on him is that he is below average defensively and a streaky hitter who gets tired down the stretch. And I know that because his career numbers tell me the exact same story.
Corey Hart lovers and I are at what most people would call an impasse. Where I will bring up his inability to move baserunners they will bring up that he hits home runs. Where I will bring up his contract in contrast with Braun’s, they will bring up his contract in contrast to Werth’s. Where a staunch Hart supporter will say, ‘he missed a month and he is third on the team in home runs’, I am more likely to point out that, ‘Rickie is injured, and he is also second in strike outs’. As I said. We are at an impasse. I will never understand how people can unabashedly support and average player and they will never understand why I think productive outs and dWAR are more important than making deep fly outs. Hopefully I can come to a mutual understanding with Corey Hart’s supporters, in which my inbox no longer floods any time he gets a goddamned base hit. If Corey’s supporters start appreciating my frustration with allowing tail runners to advance into scoring position, or rolling into 6-3 with a runner on third and less than two outs then maybe someday I will learn to appreciate their joy when he hits a meaningless home run up 7-2… sorry, that’s not a good start to this understanding.
