Last week was brutal, derailing my fantastic 2010 picking season. I went 2-8 on college picks last week and many of them weren’t even close. But it is time to be strong minded, I will not turn into the Cubs and fold when it matters most. This time of year gamblers have to work harder anyway as Vegas has figured out all of the teams. This deep in the season, it is very difficult to find lines with as much value as you can find earlier in the year. Now is when hard work pays off. If you study the games hard, sift through the numbers, put a bright light on motivating factors, and find trends, you can still find winners.
Really, this isn’t that different from actual college football teams. When late October rolls around, teams don’t have many tricks left in the bag that haven’t been shown on tape at least once. Teams know what the other team is going to run, what their opponent’s strengths and weaknesses are, and it simply comes down to execution. As players get tired late in the season, mental focus usually dissipates as well. When a good team plays a team that has struggled through the season’s first two months, let down games become more prevalent. That is why this time of the year often gives us big time upsets and general unpredictability.
Teams also have to get over the general malaise of losing a few games. Some teams, especially those that came into the season with high expectations, can let things really slip away if they find that they can no longer achieve those expectations. That is why trends become so important. Vegas doesn’t use trends very strongly in their lines, instead, they take more of a holistic approach to the season numbers when setting their lines. Young teams can often pull things together and go on a hot streak, while some of the teams that I mentioned, with slipping expectations, can crumble under that disappointment.
Our job as gamblers remains what it always is. Find the values and exploit them. I may have struggled last week, but I’m still sitting well over .500 for the season and can get back to my goal of 55% with one good week. Let’s hope my work this week pays off…to the picks!
NCAA Picks
Clemson/BOSTON COLLEGE OVER 41.5
I always like over/under’s set in the low 40’s between two teams that I wouldn’t qualify as defensive teams. No, neither of these two teams have particularly explosive offenses, but they don’t really stop people either. Boston College’s last four games have gone over this total, all conference games like this one. Clemson’s last three have actually gone under, but all have been within 5 points, and weren’t against teams where high scores are the norm. I like Clemson to win, but I think they allow enough points to put this one over.
Northwestern -3 over INDIANA
This is one of a couple of picks where Jake and I agree, which likely means you should run the other way. With that said, this line makes absolutely no sense to me. While games like that usually scare me away, I cannot come up with a reason not to make this bet. Possibly Northwestern will have some let down after a tough loss to Michigan State last week, but this Indiana team is horrible. Indiana is 0-3 in the Big Ten and the Wildcats are a decent program that I don’t see falling to 1-3 at the bottom of this conference. With this line at three, Vegas is calling this game slightly better than a coin flip. But it’s not…take Northwestern and lay the points.
Wake Forest +5.5 over MARYLAND
I see that Deacons as a value play going forward as they are not as bad as their record is showing. They have lost 5 straight games, but against a tough schedule that has included Stanford, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Navy, and Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, they are playing a 5-2 Maryland team that has gotten there by beating the dredges of Division 1 college football. Wake is coming off of a bye and will no doubt be hungry for a win. Meanwhile, the Terps are probably a bit satisfied with their 5-2 record and frankly, aren’t anywhere near talented enough to overcome anything but a complete effort. I like the Deacons straight up, getting +180 on the money line, so obviously love them getting 5.5.
Michigan St +6.5 over IOWA
First off, I want to mention how absolutely thrilled I was to see the cut to a guy in the Iowa crowd crying last week after the Badgers beat them. I don’t even have that much hatred for Iowa fans (some don’t get me wrong, but it isn’t overpowering). But I was so happy to get the win and to see that guy sobbing like a child brought me great joy. Moving on, here is the other pick where Jake and I agree. Initially, I marked this down as the loss for Michigan St that would knock them out of the national title picture. But the more I look at this game, the more I have changed my mind. First, everybody, and I mean everybody, is on Iowa in this game, as the -6.5 line goes to show. Second, Sparty had their let down in the 1st half against Northwestern a week ago and found a way to pull the game out. With all of the talk about how they are destined to lose, I have no doubt that they will be completely ready to play. Third, looking at the numbers, I’m beginning to believe that Iowa may just be an average team. They got beat by Arizona, Wisconsin at home, and even coming off their bye, got wildly out gained by Michigan despite winning by 10. Iowa is coming off of a tough loss and is unquestionably the side with more motivational issues this week. On top of all that, Michigan State is getting almost a touchdown in this one, which should probably be -3 at most. Take the points, Iowa may win, but they won’t roll.
Missouri +7.5 over NEBRASKA
This is the one of my picks that I don’t really like. Nebraska is the better team and Missouri just won their biggest game of the year over Oklahoma. Being over a touchdown though, this feels like a rare value this late in the year. Let’s move on before I change my mind.
OREGON ST -3 over Cal
The Beavers are a good team and got a bye week after the brutal run in their scheduled, ended by an overtime loss at Washington. Cal on the other hand has just finished playing their two rivals in UCLA and USC, followed by a blowout win over Arizona St. Oregon State has a true homefield advantage and should be ready to go on Saturday. I was surprised to see this game down at -3 and will gladly lay the points.
East Carolina +7.5 over UCF
This is another line that seems off. East Carolina is a solid team, extremely strong offensively, that has dominated Conference USA over the last few seasons. Central Florida has played well too and this game is pretty clearly going to determine the league’s ultimate champion. But ECU beat UCF by 5 a year ago and I see no reason to believe that this game shouldn’t go down to the wire as well. Getting two scores makes no sense to me, so I’ll take the Pirates and the points.
Florida +2.5 over Georgia
I’m a little frustrated because this line was initially Georgia -3, which I absolutely loved, but is has since dropped to -2.5. Still, I absolutely love the Gators here. At the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, neither team has any promise of going anywhere great this time around. Florida has lost three straight SEC games, is getting bashed from every angle, and had a bye week to regain their focus. Meanwhile, everybody is suddenly on this Georgia team because after a brutal start, they have pulled out three straight games. Here’s the thing: they beat Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky the week after they beat South Carolina, about as easy a three game stretch as you can possibly find in this conference. The Gators will come ready to play while I expect Georgia to fall flat. I like the Gators big on Saturday.
55 Percenters 2010 - 2011 Season Record: 51-46-1 (.526) All Time on ADPTP: 108-107-3 (.502) Last Post: 2-2 (.500)
