Posted by Brandon

The storyline is seemingly set. The Green Bay Packers sit at 13-0 and are one win away from officially clinching the #1 Seed in the NFC playoffs. Then, the debate rages over whether Mike McCarthy should push his team and risk his starters towards 16-0, or prudently rest his guys focusing on “what really matters”, the Super Bowl.

Here’s the thing, there is hardly a debate. Nearly every person, every article, and every pundit I hear say the same thing: Rest your guys. The line of reasoning is fairly simple. All that really matters in the NFL is winning the Super Bowl. Just ask the 18-1 New England Patriots from 2007, who were worn down by the constant pressure and are now merely a historic footnote as the one team to go 16-0.

But here is my question: What is a Super Bowl winner other than a historic footnote? What do we talk about more, the 2007 18-1 New England Patriots or the 2006 Super Bowl XLI champions? I would venture to guess that you’ll either have to think for a few seconds or look it up to remember that the Indianapolis Colts won that Super Bowl.

This Packer team won a Super Bowl last year, so it isn’t as if this is their one shot at glory. However, this may be their one shot at enduring greatness. How many teams can make a legitimate claim to consider themselves the greatest team to ever play the game? A team from Green Bay, the home of 13 world championships, has a chance to separate themselves even from their own rich history. Yes, Super Bowl victories are what really matter in the NFL, but it isn’t bravado or ignorance to see that this team can achieve something more.

Hand in hand with that swing for immortality is risk, this is undeniable. If the 15-0 Packers blow a protection and a crazed, red eyed Kyle Vanden Bosch blind sides Aaron Rodgers, of course Packer fans will hold their collective breath. But as Aaron said in his post game press conference, there is risk every time you take the field.

And while that risk undoubtedly exists, it doesn’t make injury to a key player likely. I would argue that given the Packers depth, only two players are truly irreplaceable for the postseason run: Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews, with an argument to be made that Charles Woodson belongs as the third in that group. I do realize that Clay’s numbers are down this year, but his overall impact on the defense is undeniable and on a team starving for pass rushers, losing the one impact guy they have would be catastrophic. But those guys (even if you count Woodson’s injuries) have managed to play in 19 consecutive games together. It’s not like the Packers are flipping a coin that they may lose one of their best players.

Further, those guys and their teammates have poured every ounce of effort they have into this incredible 19 game run. I don’t think that can be taken lightly. The players and coaches have earned every inch and every win over the last 52 weeks and it doesn’t seem realistic that they should waive the white flag now.

That last coach to give up his team’s run at an undefeated season was Jim Caldwell two seasons ago. His team went on to lose in the Super Bowl anyway, just like those 2007 Patriots who “wore themselves out”. It seems entirely plausible that we overrate the impact of those two additional games when the team has a bye week looming before their first playoff game anyway.

But what has happened to those Colts since? Last year’s Colts went 10-6, won a crappy division and lost in the first round of the playoffs. This year’s Colts, granted without Peyton Manning, still haven’t won a game. Isn’t it possible that Jim Caldwell lost his team’s respect with that fateful decision? The Colts were absolutely older and more frail than this current Packer team, so I am in no way implying that an oh-fer is in the Packers immediate future if McCarthy chooses to rest his guys. But I am implying that his players would lose a little respect and have a twinge of resentment if he pulled the rug out from under them on their run toward immortality.

Now, let’s get to the most important point. The argument constantly brought up by those arguing to rest guys is that the ultimate goal is to win the Super Bowl, not go 19-0. But what gets left out is the jump of reasoning that this implies: You have a better chance to win the Super Bowl if you rest your starters.

I argue that this is simply not true. I won’t go as far as to argue that it hurts your chances, but I think it is essentially a non issue. Two times in the last decade a six seed, the Super Bowl XL champion Steelers and last year’s Packers managed to get hot at the right time and storm to the title. The 2007 New York Giants, who beat the aforementioned 18-0 Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, battled until the end against the then 15-0 Patriots despite having “nothing to play for” and it lit a fire under them that lasted through their hoisting of the Lombardi. Yes, counter examples exist too, such as the 2010 Saints who rested their starters in their final regular season game and went on to bring home the title. Ultimately today’s NFL is one where the hot team, filled with confidence at the right time, is the one who will win the games when they count. Only the coach in that locker room knows what his players need to instill that confidence. Personally, I would argue that going 16-0 and running their win streak to 22 is the best way for the Packers to make that move.

Let’s flash back one year. The Green Bay Packers are 9-6. They need to beat their arch rival Bears to clinch a postseason berth, who already have the NFC North and #2 seed in their back pockets. The Bears, despite having nothing to play for, play their starters throughout in an effort to keep their division rival from making the field. We all know what happened. The Packers won, the teams met again in the NFC Championship, and the Packers KOed the Bears dreams of a championship.

The final two games of the Packers season line up in a similar fashion. The Bears. The Lions. Two division rivals battling for their playoff lives and the Packers may hold the key to determine if they get in. NFC North games are almost always close, the familiarity breeds that type of game. The Packers-Bears haven’t had a game decided by more than 10 points since 2008. The Packers-Lions were close at half this year and everyone remembers the seemingly playoff crippling 7-3 loss the Packers felt at the Lions hands last year.

Is that really who the Packers want to run into in the playoffs? Or would they rather squash those teams now, when a loss isn’t a season ender? If the Bears had finished the job a year ago, they could be the team defending a championship right now.

The Packers are going to beat the struggling, now head coach-less Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. They will sit at 14-0 with “nothing to play for” in their final two divisional games at Lambeau Field. I say make a run at history. If an injury happens, I won’t blame Mike McCarthy, I’ll chalk it up to tough luck in a run at immortality.

Immortality. The only way to avoid being a footnote.