Football is back baby! We had some college games last weekend to wet our appetites, and this weekend the glory of football hits us hard. Last night, the Vikings and Saints kicked off the NFL season, even if it was a bit of a lackluster opener. Saturday, we get our first real taste of college football as great games litter the schedule. Sunday, the NFL season finally kicks into full gear with a full slate of games. Of course with the NFL on Sunday, fantasy football season finally begins. It doesn’t even end there, as we have a pair on Monday night games as a capper to the weekend. The best part? We get to do it all again next week.
For those of you newer to the blog, Jake and I began ADPTP last year during football season. As our domain name and description of the website says, gambling is one of the key building blocks of Al Davis Plus the Points. We both pick games against the spread and keep track of our records along the way. The summer is a down time for betting picks, as we only have baseball, not exactly an exciting sport for betting. Football is clearly the best gambling sport around (secretly one of the reasons for its massive popularity) and we usually post betting picks pretty regularly during the season.
Today I will kick off my 55 Percenters for the 2010-2011 season with my favorite college bets for the week. My 55 Percenters have the goal of beating a standard sportsbook, where bets are -110. -110 means that you have to bet $110 to win $100. That extra 10% is how the sportsbook make so much money and is typically referred to as juice or vig. In order to break even with all -110 bets, you would have to correctly hit 52.5% of your bets. So to make some money, I set 55% as the bar for my bets. After a hot start on ADPTP, I really struggled down the stretch last year. In this space, I will give my year to date record and my all-time record, which I hope to get back up to 55% this year. Enough of this wasted space…to the picks!
College Football Picks
West Virginia -13 over MARSHALL
This is a rare Friday game, so if you want to join me here, you have to get in today. I like this West Virginia team with 4 offensive lineman returning and senior Noel Devine in the backfield. Devine is a stud and I don’t think that this mediocre Marshall team can stop the Mountaineers offense. Granted, Marshall played a very good offensive team in Ohio St last week, but they allowed a whopping 6.8 yards per carry in their opener. I see the team of brothers (literally) from West Virginia winning easily tonight and will lay the thirteen.
Georgia Tech -14 over KANSAS
For me, this is one of the easiest picks of the weekend. Georgia Tech has mastered the option offense and should be able to pound Kansas into submission. Kansas lost a 6-3 thriller to North Dakota St in Week 1, so I’m not extremely concerned that they will match the Georgia Tech offense score for score. Even on the road, the Yellow Jackets roll.
Michigan +3.5 over NOTRE DAME
The game between media darlings can be properly fawned over as both teams come in 1-0. Michigan’s offense looked fantastic in Week 1 against UConn, as Denard Robinson showed why he won the starting quarterback job. I don’t think he’ll look that great throwing the ball all season, but he certainly proved that he isn’t a run only option behind center. Notre Dame isn’t a terrible team and I do expect this to be a pretty close game, but I’ll gladly take Michigan getting over a field goal.
Florida St. +7.5 over OKLAHOMA
I bet this game on Wednesday and got in at +7.5. My website is now down to a 7 point line, but I’m guessing you can still find it at 7.5 somewhere. Oklahoma is a good team, but is not the Oklahoma that went to multiple BCS bowls a few years ago. Landry Jones should be better this year at QB, after being decent filling in for Sam Bradford as a freshman last year. The big worry is in the secondary, where Oklahoma is dangerously thin. That secondary is paired against a Florida St. team that is highlighted by senior quarterback Christian Ponder and an offensive line that returns all 5 starters from a year ago. Despite playing in Norman, I give Florida St. a reasonable chance to win this game outright, much less cover a touchdown plus spread. Don’t bet on past Sooner success, take the ‘Noles.
Miami/OHIO STATE OVER 46
This is another line that has moved since I bet it, from 46, to 46.5, and now rests at 47. I still highly recommend betting this one at 47. These are two powerful offenses led by Jacory Harris and Terrelle Pryor. I expect both teams to move the ball successfully and was expecting to see an over/under settled in the low 50’s. Bet the over, at least you’ll have something to root for in a game between two of the most unlikable teams on the college football horizon.
Brigham Young +1 over AIR FORCE
Another one of my favorites this week as the Mormons are somehow getting points against Air Force. In last year’s battle, BYU won by 18 points and outgained AF by almost 200 yards. Granted, that was in the heart of Mormon country and this year it is in the land of planes, but I don’t expect a drastically different result. BYU still has superior players and coaches, which for me, is a good enough reason to pick them to win. Load up on the Cougars and count your winnings.
ALABAMA -12 over Penn St & ALABAMA/Penn St UNDER 44
Two bets for you when the Nittany Lions travel to Tuscaloosa. Penn St is starting a freshman quarterback in the heart of college football country, the only place on earth where wearing a fedora doesn’t automatically make you a douche. Alabama’s defense may not be as good as last year’s version, but I see the Nittany Lion offense struggling like Lou Holtz trying to form a coherent sentence. This game screams 24-6 kind of game at me, which leads to both of these bets.
Stanford -6 over UCLA
This is my final college pick of the week and is another one of the race for my favorite of the week. This UCLA team has some talent, but should not be able to play with Andrew Luck and this Stanford team. Perhaps it is the loss of Toby Gerhart, but I feel like this Stanford team is undervalued right now. UCLA seems to be on the opposite end as they continue to get respect, despite the horrendous play of quarterback Kevin Prince. Lay the six in this one.
55 Percenters
2010 - 2011 Season Record: 0-0-0 (.000)
All Time on ADPTP: 57-61-2 (.483) Last Post: 0-0 (.000)
