Posted by Brandon

The storyline is seemingly set. The Green Bay Packers sit at 13-0 and are one win away from officially clinching the #1 Seed in the NFC playoffs. Then, the debate rages over whether Mike McCarthy should push his team and risk his starters towards 16-0, or prudently rest his guys focusing on “what really matters”, the Super Bowl.

Here’s the thing, there is hardly a debate. Nearly every person, every article, and every pundit I hear say the same thing: Rest your guys. The line of reasoning is fairly simple. All that really matters in the NFL is winning the Super Bowl. Just ask the 18-1 New England Patriots from 2007, who were worn down by the constant pressure and are now merely a historic footnote as the one team to go 16-0.

But here is my question: What is a Super Bowl winner other than a historic footnote? What do we talk about more, the 2007 18-1 New England Patriots or the 2006 Super Bowl XLI champions? I would venture to guess that you’ll either have to think for a few seconds or look it up to remember that the Indianapolis Colts won that Super Bowl.

This Packer team won a Super Bowl last year, so it isn’t as if this is their one shot at glory. However, this may be their one shot at enduring greatness. How many teams can make a legitimate claim to consider themselves the greatest team to ever play the game? A team from Green Bay, the home of 13 world championships, has a chance to separate themselves even from their own rich history. Yes, Super Bowl victories are what really matter in the NFL, but it isn’t bravado or ignorance to see that this team can achieve something more.

Hand in hand with that swing for immortality is risk, this is undeniable. If the 15-0 Packers blow a protection and a crazed, red eyed Kyle Vanden Bosch blind sides Aaron Rodgers, of course Packer fans will hold their collective breath. But as Aaron said in his post game press conference, there is risk every time you take the field.

And while that risk undoubtedly exists, it doesn’t make injury to a key player likely. I would argue that given the Packers depth, only two players are truly irreplaceable for the postseason run: Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews, with an argument to be made that Charles Woodson belongs as the third in that group. I do realize that Clay’s numbers are down this year, but his overall impact on the defense is undeniable and on a team starving for pass rushers, losing the one impact guy they have would be catastrophic. But those guys (even if you count Woodson’s injuries) have managed to play in 19 consecutive games together. It’s not like the Packers are flipping a coin that they may lose one of their best players.

Further, those guys and their teammates have poured every ounce of effort they have into this incredible 19 game run. I don’t think that can be taken lightly. The players and coaches have earned every inch and every win over the last 52 weeks and it doesn’t seem realistic that they should waive the white flag now.

That last coach to give up his team’s run at an undefeated season was Jim Caldwell two seasons ago. His team went on to lose in the Super Bowl anyway, just like those 2007 Patriots who “wore themselves out”. It seems entirely plausible that we overrate the impact of those two additional games when the team has a bye week looming before their first playoff game anyway.

But what has happened to those Colts since? Last year’s Colts went 10-6, won a crappy division and lost in the first round of the playoffs. This year’s Colts, granted without Peyton Manning, still haven’t won a game. Isn’t it possible that Jim Caldwell lost his team’s respect with that fateful decision? The Colts were absolutely older and more frail than this current Packer team, so I am in no way implying that an oh-fer is in the Packers immediate future if McCarthy chooses to rest his guys. But I am implying that his players would lose a little respect and have a twinge of resentment if he pulled the rug out from under them on their run toward immortality.

Now, let’s get to the most important point. The argument constantly brought up by those arguing to rest guys is that the ultimate goal is to win the Super Bowl, not go 19-0. But what gets left out is the jump of reasoning that this implies: You have a better chance to win the Super Bowl if you rest your starters.

I argue that this is simply not true. I won’t go as far as to argue that it hurts your chances, but I think it is essentially a non issue. Two times in the last decade a six seed, the Super Bowl XL champion Steelers and last year’s Packers managed to get hot at the right time and storm to the title. The 2007 New York Giants, who beat the aforementioned 18-0 Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, battled until the end against the then 15-0 Patriots despite having “nothing to play for” and it lit a fire under them that lasted through their hoisting of the Lombardi. Yes, counter examples exist too, such as the 2010 Saints who rested their starters in their final regular season game and went on to bring home the title. Ultimately today’s NFL is one where the hot team, filled with confidence at the right time, is the one who will win the games when they count. Only the coach in that locker room knows what his players need to instill that confidence. Personally, I would argue that going 16-0 and running their win streak to 22 is the best way for the Packers to make that move.

Let’s flash back one year. The Green Bay Packers are 9-6. They need to beat their arch rival Bears to clinch a postseason berth, who already have the NFC North and #2 seed in their back pockets. The Bears, despite having nothing to play for, play their starters throughout in an effort to keep their division rival from making the field. We all know what happened. The Packers won, the teams met again in the NFC Championship, and the Packers KOed the Bears dreams of a championship.

The final two games of the Packers season line up in a similar fashion. The Bears. The Lions. Two division rivals battling for their playoff lives and the Packers may hold the key to determine if they get in. NFC North games are almost always close, the familiarity breeds that type of game. The Packers-Bears haven’t had a game decided by more than 10 points since 2008. The Packers-Lions were close at half this year and everyone remembers the seemingly playoff crippling 7-3 loss the Packers felt at the Lions hands last year.

Is that really who the Packers want to run into in the playoffs? Or would they rather squash those teams now, when a loss isn’t a season ender? If the Bears had finished the job a year ago, they could be the team defending a championship right now.

The Packers are going to beat the struggling, now head coach-less Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. They will sit at 14-0 with “nothing to play for” in their final two divisional games at Lambeau Field. I say make a run at history. If an injury happens, I won’t blame Mike McCarthy, I’ll chalk it up to tough luck in a run at immortality.

Immortality. The only way to avoid being a footnote.

Posted by Brandon

Here are our Week 13 picks with a few 55 Percenters sprinkled in. Jake rolled last week moving our year record 7-5 in favor of Jake.

Philadelphia -3 over SEATTLE

Jake Sea +3 / Brandon Sea +3

This game is already over and both Jake and I picked it correctly. The Eagles have quit and we weren’t falling for it.

BUFFALO -1 over Tennessee

Jake Buf -1 / Brandon Ten +1

The Bills have cashed it in, they are no longer good. Factor in the CJ2K is finally starting to look good against a shitty Bills rushing defense and I’m willing to make this a difference. I won’t make this a 55 percenter unless you can guarantee me that it comes down to Stevie “No Hands” Johnson in the clutch.

CHICAGO -7 over Kansas City

Jake Chi -7 / Brandon Chi -7

Tyler Palko. Kyle Orton. The Bears D. Umm, yes please.

55 Percenter: Chicago -7

MIAMI -2.5 over Oakland

Jake Oak +2.5 / Brandon Oak +2.5

I wouldn’t have bet this at +2.5 but the line has strangely since moved to Oak +3.5. I like it more at this price and think that they are the better team. Yes, Miami has played well, but they shouldn’t be giving over a field goal (saying they are the favorite on a neutral field!?!?) against a playoff team. Al Davis’ and the 55er please.

55 Percenter: Oakland +3.5

MINNESOTA -1 over Denver

Jake Min -1 / Brandon Den +1

Another line that has sinced moved, now sitting at Denver -1. Tim Tebow, who makes Jake a modern day Paul Lynde (ADPTP classic reference!), will seek to put on his Superman pajamas again during this one. Somehow, Jake picked against his boy, but I’m not so silly. Timmy T will find a way to get this done when it counts. No AP helps…so let’s make it a 55er.

55 Percenter: Denver -1

NEW ENGLAND -20 over Indianapolis

Jake NE -20 / Brandon NE -20

Jesus, seriously!?!? 20 points? But still, Belichick is an ass and won’t turn it off, especially against a team that has been a rival. Pats big, Jake and I agree.

PITTSBURGH -6.5 over Cincinnati

Jake Pit -6.5 / Brandon Cin +6.5

After watching the Steelers play the Chiefs last week, I’ve changed camps. While Jake is still willing to pick the Steelers, unless it is Big Ben versus a helpless coed, I no longer believe. They looked awful and I’m becoming a believer in the Red Rifle. I’ll take the points and make it a 55er.

55 Percenter: Cincinnati +6.5

TAMPA BAY -3 over Carolina

Jake Car +3 / Brandon TB -3

Josh Freeman is questionable and frankly, I just don’t care. I’ll take the home team and pick LeGarrette Blount to have a big day against the terrible Panther D.

New York Jets -2.5 over WASHINGTON

Jake NYJ -2.5 / Brandon NYJ -2.5

Somehow, this line has dropped to -2, even if that line is insignificant, it tells me that faith has completely left the Jets. I agree that the Jets aren’t elite, but the Redskins are still terrible and Mike Shanahan has no clue what he’s doing. I think the Jets D steps up, as they usually do when the doubt creeps in. I’m a degenerate, so let’s bet it too.

55 Percenter: New York Jets -2

Atlanta -2.5 over HOUSTON

Jake Atl -2.5 / Brandon Atl -2.5

Another line changer, and in a direction that makes no sense. It’s somehow down to Atl -1. Everyone realizes that Houston is on their third QB right? And Gary Kubiak is their coach? Anyone? Please? OK fuck it…55 Percenter.

55 Percenter: Atlanta -1

Baltimore -6.5 over CLEVELAND

Jake Bal -6.5 / Brandon Bal -6.5

I don’t even know what to say. Baltimore can be very good, but they are also wildly inconsistent. It’s up to -7, so I’m definitely not betting it, but we both like the Ravens.

Dallas -4 over ARIZONA

Jake Dal -4 / Brandon Dal -4

Another mover and shaker, much like Paul Lynde back in the Bewitched days. I won’t bet it, simply because Arizona has been a house of horrors for the ‘Boys over the years. Still, I’m laying the points…because Cardinals suck.

Green Bay -6.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS

Jake GB -6.5 / Brandon GB -6.5

Please. I picked it before the season and I’m not backing off. The Giants suck. The Packers are elite. Sure, this is do or die for the Giants, but that’s like saying it’s do or die for an AIDS patient. In the end, things won’t end well.

55 Percenter: GB -6.5

 SAN FRANCISCO -13 over St. Louis

Jake SF -13 / Brandon StL +13

I refuse put belief in the Niners and especially Alex Smith laying almost two touchdowns. I won’t bet it, but that’s too many points. Give me the plus.

NEW ORLEANS -8.5 over Detroit

Jake NO -8.5 / Brandon Det +8.5

Really big line in my opinion. I think this game is high scoring and I think that Detroit loses by a TD, even if that means a late garbage TD. Another difference, but no 55er.

San Diego -3 over JACKSONVILLE

Jake SD -3 / Brandon Jax +3

Credit to the Sports Guy on this write up. A crappy team that got their coach fired versus a crappy team that wants to get their coach fired. Want to is a strong thing. Give me the Jags.

55 Percenters

Last Post: 4-5-0 (.444)

Posted by Brandon

The unofficial start of the playoff race starts tomorrow, as the NFL enters Thanksgiving Week. Historically, the celebration to start this run is three crappy games that you can easily nap through after eating enough to make you feel like the food is resting halfway up your throat. This year? No so much.

The games are fantastic and we’ll all have to adjust accordingly. Yes, I’d love to take my typical post meal nap, but this year, the games are too good to sleep through.

With the NFL late season push, comes Jake and my battle for picking supremacy. With a close win a week ago, Jake now holds a 6-5 lead in weeks won, meaning that we look once again to be headed towards a late season show down.

Additionally, I need to feed my love for gambling while I still have the main course, football. Sure, I like betting on college basketball through the winter, but there is nothing like betting on NFL games. So, like I have done before, I will go through our picks and make a few that I like the most 55 Percenters.

Green Bay -6.5 over DETROIT

Jake - GB -6.5 / Brandon - Det +6.5

It hurts to picks against our undefeated Pack, but this game legitimately scares me. The crowd will be rocking, the Lions can actually score, and most importantly, this game means a ton more to them. I still think the Packers pull this out, but I think the value is with Detroit. I’ll actually throw two 55ers down here: the Lions and the over.

55 Percenters: Detroit +6.5 & Over 55.5

DALLAS -7 over Miami

Jake - Mia +7 / Brandon - Mia +7

This one looked like the Thanksgiving stinker, but both teams have gotten hot make this interesting. Jake and I both are hesitant with the ‘Boys, every time they pull you in, they remind you that the modern Cowboys are synonymous with failure. But, was that because of Wade “Marshmallow with a Headset” Phillips or is it the players? And, will Tony Sparano still insist on wearing his sunglasses indoors?

BALTIMORE -3 over San Francisco

Jake - SF +3 / Brandon - SF +3

As much as I like this as the Thanksgiving night game, I hate this line. I really have no grasp on what will happen. They may be 9-1, but with Alex Smith behind the wheel, I still feel like the Niners are a guy with a .2 BAC driving at 4 AM. I refuse to believe that they should actually worry me as a Packer fan.

On the other hand, the Ravens have already proven that they can’t be trusted. They win a big game and then lay an egg against the Seahawks. Joe Flacco tries to prove me wrong with a crunch time drive against the Steelers and then returns to skipping balls to the flat the next week. I’ll just take the points and move on.

ST LOUIS -3 over Arizona

Jake - StL -3 / Brandon - StL -3

And the punishment for three good Thanksgiving games begins with this turd on Sunday. Whatever.

NY JETS -9 over Buffalo

Jake - NYJ -9 / Brandon - NYJ -9

A real Thanksgiving recipe for you to make money. A line that seems artificially high because Buffalo has looked terrible, despite the Jets looking decidedly mediocre. Jake and I both laying those points for no specific reason. Buffalo losing Fred Jackson for the year, meaning that their own fans have now jumped ship. Bet Buffalo and bet them hard.

CINCINNATI -7 over Cleveland

Jake - Cin -7 / Brandon - Cin -7

I’m tempted to make this a 55 Percenter because the Browns are so terrible. But I’m slightly worried that the Bengals may lay an egg after losing back to back tough games to the Steelers and Ravens. I think they win and cover, but I’m not quite confident to put my money where my mouth is.

Houston -3 over JACKSONVILLE

Jake - Hou -3 / Brandon - Hou -3

Matt Leinart will make his debut as the Texans quarterback, but luckily for them, I don’t think he’ll need to do a whole lot in this one. The Texans will probably run the ball 40 times and work in some playaction to give Leinart a few easy throws. Or Gary Kubiak will let Leinart chuck it, ruin his confidence, and shoot down any remaining shot the Texans have at success without Schaub. I really want to make this a 55er…but I just don’t trust Gary Kubiak.

Carolina -3.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

Jake - Car -3.5 / Brandon - Ind +3.5

I continue to refuse to believe that Indy will go 0-16, but I fell for the “week everyone pick the winless team” two weeks ago against the Jags. Now this week, everybody is picking Carolina. I can see a couple of turnovers from Cam. I can see the Colts actually managing a few scores against the putrid Panther defense. This is it, I believe.

55 Percenter: Indy +3.5

TENNESSEE -3 over Tampa Bay

Jake - TB +3 / Brandon - TB +3

Two more teams who I don’t have a clue on. I feel like Tampa may be a little better than we think because they’ve had an insanely difficult schedule, but it’s also easy to see them taking a dive after give the Packers a nailbiter last week. The Titans are even worse. I think they are bad, and then they pull out a win right when I least expect it. This will probably be that week.

ATLANTA -9.5 over Minnesota

Jake - Atl -9.5 / Brandon - Atl -9.5

This Minnesota team is awful and they may be without their one offensive weapon, Adrian Peterson. Factor in that Matt Ryan, for all of his limits, doesn’t turn the ball over and it’s hard to see any way the Vikings keep this close.

55 Percenter: Atlanta -9.5

OAKLAND -4 over Chicago

Jake - Al -4 / Brandon - Chi +4

Jake and I disagree here, but really we don’t. When going over our picks on the phone tonight, Jake said, “I will guarantee this, Carson Palmer throws at least two interceptions.” Exactly. The Bears may be missing a quarterback, but they won’t need it here. Their defense and special teams will do enough to get them a win.

55 Percenter: Chicago +4

SEATTLE -3.5 over Washington

Jake - Sea -3.5 / Brandon - Wash +3.5

Let’s make sure we have this straight. I constantly talk about how much better Seattle is at home and Jake mocks me for it. They are mere three and a half point favorites over a crappy Washington team with Rex Grossman leading the way on the road. Yet when it comes time for the picks, Jake goes with the Seahawks and I take the Skins. It’s no wonder I’m behind this year.

New England -4.5 over PHILADELPHIA

Jake - Phi +4.5 / Brandon - NE -4.5

I can see Jake’s thought here, the Eagles season is still on the line and their defense has been playing better. But the thing is, with Brady and Belichick, I just don’t think it matters. I’ll lay the points.

55 Percenter: NE -4.5

SAN DIEGO -6 over Denver

Jake - Den +6 / Brandon - Den +6

WHAT IS GOING ON!?!? NORV TURNER, PHILIP RIVERS, AND THIS CHARGER TEAM ARE NOT GOOD! HOW ARE THEY LAYING ALMOST A TOUCHDOWN AGAINST ANYONE?!!?

Wait, why am I complaining? Free money on Thanksgiving weekend…what I’m truly thankful for.

55 Percenter: Denver +6

Pittsburgh -10.5 over KANSAS CITY

Jake - Pit -10.5 / Brandon - Pit -10.5

I saw Tyler Palko on Monday night. I’ve seen Kyle Orton this season. I don’t care who plays quarterback, the Steelers roll off of their bye week.

55 Percenter: Pittsburgh -10.5

NEW ORLEANS -7 over NY Giants

Jake - NO -7 / Brandon - NO -7

I’d love to make this a 55 Percenter. The Saints are phenomenal in the dome and I’ve been calling for the Giants collapse since the preseason. But this game is classic Giants. Right when everyone turns their back, they randomly stay in a game where they are big underdogs. I’m staying smarting and laying off here. Luckily, for my degenerate gambling sensibilities, I like the over so don’t have to watch a Monday night game without money on the line.

55 Percenter: Over 50.5

55 Percenters

Posted by Brandon

Our, and by “our” I mostly mean “my”, vast incompetence knows no bounds. Yes, Jake may have stooped to posting a photo of our picks last week but I two upped him. Not only did I forget to post them…I forgot to make them. To be fair, we are awarding Jake the week since he did take the time to make and email me his picks.

I would make promises to post and/or get a poddy up soon, but I’d rather just be lazy than be a lazy liar. Hopefully I’ll get you some 55 Percenters soon, especially because I’ve been hot lately. I actually made a ridiculous parlay, one that there was no logical reason to make this weekend. That’s right, the infamous (and rarely profitable) 3 team underdog money line parlay. I took the Jets +125, Ravens +155, and Bears +300 for 22 to 1 odds. For those not paying attention, all three teams won and my $10 parlay paid nicely. Maybe now that I have a nice little fund in my account, it will motivate me to put some time and effort into my picks.

On the bright side, I am in my final semester (final month actually) of school, so will have more time very soon. This is unlikely to lead to anything productive, but I thought I’d fill you in. I do have a Mike Vick Myth piece tossing around in the ol’ bean, so hopefully I’ll write that up soon.